EXPLORATION

High-risk Punt

FIRST containerised components of a drill rig have arrived at the Red Sea port of Djibouti for the start of work on the high-risk, high-reward exploration program of Canadian explorer Africa Oil and its Western Australian partner Range Resources in the northeast Somali region of Puntland.

High-risk Punt

After testing and being broken down into small packages, the rig will be shipped into Puntland via the small northern port of Bosaso. From there, it will travel overland to "drill-ready" locations largely identified by the previous explorer in the region, Conoco (now ConocoPhillips).

Africa Oil and Range plan four wells in their first phase of work, which represents the first drilling since 1991 when Somalia collapsed into civil war.

Puntland is the first region of the troubled country to emerge from the fighting which was largely confined to the south of Somalia.

Range took advantage of the independent stance of Puntland's regional government to secure mineral and oil exploration rights across the entire state which occupies a region best known as the Horn of Africa.

Geologically, there is every reason to believe that Puntland contains commercial quantities of oil. The politics and military situation are far less certain with the regional government under pressure from its western neighbour, the state of Somaliland, and from the migration of displaced southerners from around Mogadishu moving north into Puntland.

Range chief executive Mike Povey told a small tour group of media and oil analysts in Bosaso that he believed there was the potential to discover large oil reservoirs in Puntland which mimicked those across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen.

"There are two main structures which have attracted a number of oil majors over the years," he said.

"They're the Nogal and Dharoor Basins. Africa Oil is spending $US45 million to earn an 80 percent stake in our tenements over those basins and will provide the technical and financial backing to manage the drilling."

Povey said the region's rift valley system meant geologically similarities could easily be drawn between Yemen and Puntland.

Analysis of the area linked the Marib-Shabwa Basin of Yemen with the Nogal Basin of Puntland, and the Sayun-Masila Basin of Yemen with Puntland's Dharoor.

While plate tectonics and rock-type analysis have established the common heritage of the regions, there has been less luck in finding oil in Puntland than in Yemen.

The earliest oil exploration in Puntland can be traced back to 1912 when oil seeps where investigated. Then followed decades of hapless seismic work and drilling by oil majors including Agip, Shell, Amerada Hess and Conoco.

The last serious work was by Conoco. Its camp near the Puntland capital of Garowe remains largely intact after the 1991 exodus from Somalia by most westerners.

Africa Oil and Range are now picking up where Conoco left off, armed with the data from that work, and from fresh processing of seismic information to help pinpoint the next drill sites, which will start in the Nogal Basin.

No precise spud date has been set for the first well. The logistics of moving heavy cargo around Puntland is daunting.

The first challenge is to make sure the port at Bosaso can handle the equipment. Next comes the movement in heavily protected convoys to the drill site.

Early forecasts had tipped a start to drilling by the end of March. A start by mid-year now seems more likely.

Managing the drilling will be the easiest part of this return to Puntland. Managing the politics will prove to be much more difficult.

Despite the regional government offering every encouragement to Africa Oil and Range, there is the ever-present fear of a fresh outbreak of violence, either from the south, or from recent troubles on Puntland's western border with Somaliland.

If, however, oil is found in commercial quantities the future of everyone involved will change dramatically.

Africa Oil will have the lion's share of the project thanks to its 80% earn-in. Range will have turned a super-high-risk prospect into a super-fat earner, and the Government of Puntland will have the rest of Somalia looking on enviously - and that final point could be a far bigger worry than any geological risk.

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