What can be seen in the energy sector's crystal ball? | Credits: ENB
02 January 2025
The mince pies have gone, the tinsel's looking jaded, and the desire for white wine in the sun has been satiated. The new year is up and running.
And while much of Australia seems like it's on a go-slow until after the Australia Day festivities on January 26, rest assured the wheels of strategy are whizzing at full speed in the energy sector (if they even slowed over the festive break).
So, what lies ahead for us over the next twelve months?
Locally speaking, Australia's general election (likely to be held in May) will pit a renewables-supporting Labor Party led by Anthony Albanese against the nuclear-backing Liberal-National Coalition led by Peter Dutton. The polls are incredibly close, so don't be surprised if the Green Party leader, Adam Bandt, holds the balance of power in a hung parliament and pushes for a nuclear-quashing coalition with Labor.
And as if we needed any more reminder of Dutton's leanings, there are reports today that if elected, he'll drop the emissions reporting requirements (which have only come into force today), a move Trump will likely make in the US, too.
Before then, in Australia's energy room, there was also the small matter of a state election in Western Australia on March 8. With the Liberals all but wiped out in the last election won by uber-premier Mark McGowan, the Roger Cook-led Labor party looks likely to be returned to power, albeit with a lessened majority. And possibly the arrival of a personality MP in the form of Basil Zempilas, the current Perth Mayor running as a Liberal.
Stepping away from the ballot box but remaining in politics, Trump will return to the White House on January 20 with his strongly pro-fossil fuels agenda. Undoubtedly, the world's energy leaders will be watching to see if he follows through on his promise to repeal his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden's green energy policies, which have spurred investments in renewables across the US.
Back in Australia, in February, we should hear from environment minister Tanya Plibersek about her ruling on whether to approve Woodside's North-West Shelf expansion project. As reported in ENB, the project was given the green light in WA at the end of 2024 and will undoubtedly have weighed heavily on the minister's mind as she took time off over the festive period.
Similarly, in April, we'll hear from the Senate Select Committee, which has examined the viability of nuclear power in Australia. Meanwhile, the Liberals' energy spokesperson, Ted O'Brien, described the inquiry as a "political stitch-up." It will be fascinating to observe how much the committee, which is heavily biased towards Labor, criticises nuclear power and how this criticism will affect voters just weeks before the crucial general election.
As for the rest of the year, time will tell. But I fully expect us to report on continued ‘law-fare' against energy companies engaged in divisive activities and projects (fracking and allegations of greenwashing to be front and centre in the courts).
I also expect we will see the continuation of the 2024 zeitgeist with the energy majors continuing to double down on oil and gas to focus on near-term profits, slowing down and even reversing climate commitments.
As energy costs soared following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, energy firms have resisted rolling out clean energy policies and pushed back their targets. US-based Exxon and Chevron, which have kept their focus on oil and gas, have served as an example to European rivals who have tried hard to continue profitably on the green path.
As a result, last year, BP and Shell sharply slowed their plans to spend billions on wind and solar power projects and shifted spending to higher-margin oil and gas ventures.
This was all neatly summarised in November when President Ilham Aliyev hailed oil and gas as "a gift from God" at the annual United Nations climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan.
So, could this mean bad news for efforts to slow climate change?
It's hard to be sure but the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has announced that 2024 was the second warmest year on record, and global heat-trapping carbon emissions are also set to hit a new high.
Additionally, the returning leader of the free world has vowed to remove the US from global climate efforts and has appointed another climate sceptic - oil executive Chris Wright - as his energy secretary.
A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.
A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.
OPINION
From the editor: What's ahead for 2025?
Our editor Russell Yeo takes a look at what the next 12 months might have in store.
What can be seen in the energy sector's crystal ball? | Credits: ENB
The mince pies have gone, the tinsel's looking jaded, and the desire for white wine in the sun has been satiated. The new year is up and running.
And while much of Australia seems like it's on a go-slow until after the Australia Day festivities on January 26, rest assured the wheels of strategy are whizzing at full speed in the energy sector (if they even slowed over the festive break).
So, what lies ahead for us over the next twelve months?
Locally speaking, Australia's general election (likely to be held in May) will pit a renewables-supporting Labor Party led by Anthony Albanese against the nuclear-backing Liberal-National Coalition led by Peter Dutton. The polls are incredibly close, so don't be surprised if the Green Party leader, Adam Bandt, holds the balance of power in a hung parliament and pushes for a nuclear-quashing coalition with Labor.
And as if we needed any more reminder of Dutton's leanings, there are reports today that if elected, he'll drop the emissions reporting requirements (which have only come into force today), a move Trump will likely make in the US, too.
Before then, in Australia's energy room, there was also the small matter of a state election in Western Australia on March 8. With the Liberals all but wiped out in the last election won by uber-premier Mark McGowan, the Roger Cook-led Labor party looks likely to be returned to power, albeit with a lessened majority. And possibly the arrival of a personality MP in the form of Basil Zempilas, the current Perth Mayor running as a Liberal.
Stepping away from the ballot box but remaining in politics, Trump will return to the White House on January 20 with his strongly pro-fossil fuels agenda. Undoubtedly, the world's energy leaders will be watching to see if he follows through on his promise to repeal his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden's green energy policies, which have spurred investments in renewables across the US.
Back in Australia, in February, we should hear from environment minister Tanya Plibersek about her ruling on whether to approve Woodside's North-West Shelf expansion project. As reported in ENB, the project was given the green light in WA at the end of 2024 and will undoubtedly have weighed heavily on the minister's mind as she took time off over the festive period.
Similarly, in April, we'll hear from the Senate Select Committee, which has examined the viability of nuclear power in Australia. Meanwhile, the Liberals' energy spokesperson, Ted O'Brien, described the inquiry as a "political stitch-up." It will be fascinating to observe how much the committee, which is heavily biased towards Labor, criticises nuclear power and how this criticism will affect voters just weeks before the crucial general election.
As for the rest of the year, time will tell. But I fully expect us to report on continued ‘law-fare' against energy companies engaged in divisive activities and projects (fracking and allegations of greenwashing to be front and centre in the courts).
I also expect we will see the continuation of the 2024 zeitgeist with the energy majors continuing to double down on oil and gas to focus on near-term profits, slowing down and even reversing climate commitments.
As energy costs soared following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, energy firms have resisted rolling out clean energy policies and pushed back their targets. US-based Exxon and Chevron, which have kept their focus on oil and gas, have served as an example to European rivals who have tried hard to continue profitably on the green path.
As a result, last year, BP and Shell sharply slowed their plans to spend billions on wind and solar power projects and shifted spending to higher-margin oil and gas ventures.
This was all neatly summarised in November when President Ilham Aliyev hailed oil and gas as "a gift from God" at the annual United Nations climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan.
So, could this mean bad news for efforts to slow climate change?
It's hard to be sure but the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has announced that 2024 was the second warmest year on record, and global heat-trapping carbon emissions are also set to hit a new high.
Additionally, the returning leader of the free world has vowed to remove the US from global climate efforts and has appointed another climate sceptic - oil executive Chris Wright - as his energy secretary.
A quiet year ahead? I don't think so.
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