Australia's energy future hangs in the balance, with a looming gas crisis threatening both the nation's renewable energy ambitions and its energy security. GeoAlliance President and CEO Nikki Martin warns that despite Australia's vast gas reserves, exploration has stalled under the weight of restrictive policies and activist opposition. Martin argues that revitalizing exploration, backed by advanced geoscience, is essential to bridging the energy gap and ensuring a stable, sustainable transition supporting economic growth and environmental goals.

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The rollout of renewables continues but not at the pace to meet the government's ambitious target of delivering 82% of Australia's electricity supply by 2030. The excitement about the creation of a green hydrogen economy has been hit by the harsh commercial reality that the persistently high cost of renewable energy means a still small world market will be supplied by hydrogen sourced from unabated fossil fuels. The increased gas-fired power generation required to firm intermittent renewables like wind and solar is threatened by a failure to find and develop new sources of natural gas.

The decline in Australia's gas production will also impact its manufacturing sector and the hundreds of thousands of workers it employs.

The Australian Energy Market Operator has warned that eastern Australia faces a projected cumulative shortfall in total national production of 3,300 petajoules between 2027 and 2035—over six times the region's annual gas use.

This is not a situation that has arisen suddenly. It really is a crisis foretold. 

For at least a decade, Australian gas users have been warning their government that not enough has been done to ensure that the gas supply keeps pace with demand.

Remarkably, a country with abundant but unproven gas resources finds itself in this situation.

To have any chance of avoiding this gas crunch, gas exploration must be permitted and encouraged.

Unfortunately, the opposite is happening. Expenditure on Australian oil and gas exploration last year was just over $1 billion. Ten years earlier, it was $4.5 billion.

The decline is not all due to government policy, but at both state and federal levels, government policies, and worse politics, are not helping.

The decision last month by an EnerGeo Alliance member not to proceed with a major seismic survey offshore Victoria was another sign that much-needed energy resource development in Australia is slowing.

Two months earlier, the federal government had restricted the use of seismic on newly awarded offshore exploration permits, creating significant uncertainty for investors and customers of the geoscience industry.

Regardless of the cause, the decision to halt this survey was a significant setback to the development of a new gas supply for eastern Australia.

It was disappointing to see activists and some members of Parliament celebrating this as a success following their campaigns against surveys and their false and exaggerated claims about the surveys' impact.

Seismic surveys are critical to identifying Australia's energy resources below land or the ocean floor. They are currently the only safe and effective way to map the subsurface and have been safely conducted in Australia for over 60 years, informing responsible resource evaluation and development.  Seismic surveys will continue to be essential to discovering and developing all forms of energy for years to come, including gas, wind, geothermal, and CCUS. 

Blocking, delaying, or limiting seismic surveys is an easy way to block, delay, or limit energy developments, and this is the clear intent of the environmental activists who are celebrating the recent decision. It is more surprising that such a short-sighted perspective is shared by some members of the government.

All reasonable analyses show that Australia needs to continue developing its natural gas resources and boosting renewable and other energy sources to manage its energy evolution. We should all be aware that this can only happen with the fundamental contribution of geoscience surveys.

EnerGeo Alliance will continue supporting its members' vital geoscience work, onshore and offshore, around Australia.

However, Australian governments and their regulatory agencies must do more to support exploration and resource development to ensure the country's energy and economic security.

 

About Nikki Martin 

Nikki Martin serves as the President and CEO of the EnerGeo Alliance, overseeing its global operations and efforts to support the energy geoscience and exploration industry. With a background in law and government affairs, she has extensive experience engaging with regulators worldwide. Since joining the EnerGeo Alliance in 2013, she has held roles including Vice President for Government and Legal Affairs. Previously, she managed regulatory and legal affairs at the Alaska Oil & Gas Association and worked with U.S. Senate President Pro Tempore Ted Stevens. Nikki holds a J.D. from Lewis & Clark College and a B.A. from the University of South Carolina.

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