Evans said the United States consumers had effectively “carried recent global growth on their shoulders”.

But he predicted a short term slowing of the oil and commodities markets as a result of slowing US domestic growth and slowing Chinese economic demand growth.

“There are special circumstances for oil, particularly the tight supply, but global conditions will still mean oil prices will drop,” he said.

However, the longer-term outlook was different as Asian economic growth was forecast to continue and a predicted additional 900 million more motor vehicles, largely in China and India, by 2030 would place significant pressure on oil reserves and prices.

“The key is the urbanisation of Asia, particularly China and India,” Evans said.

OPEC output could increase by about 40%, with the vast majority of that coming from the Middle East, to about 63 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) by 2030. Total world oil production could climb from 83 million to 138 million bopd over the same period.

The “balance” between OPEC and non-OPEC production could be maintained, but not much past 2010.

“OPEC is holding all the cards,” Evans said.

Considering the current geopolitical instabilities within OPEC, natural gas looked as though it would play a limited but useful role.

Evans said he did not believe energy self sufficiency, particularly in oil, should be a national objective for a country. He said each nation should maximise whatever resources it had.

“If you’ve got iron ore, trade it for oil. If you’ve got excess gas capacity, then trade that for oil,” he said.

“There’s a bubble in commodities. There is no doubt we are in a super cycle but markets can get ahead of themselves. The markets are giving too much recognition to China.”