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“With high oil prices here to stay, the importance of LNG is growing,” Newman said.
“The Chinese have an enormous demand for energy and have to keep all options open. It’s hard to believe that they will not be involved in Gorgon.”
Deloitte is anticipating a solid, flexible, expanding LNG market over the next 15 years, according to Newman.
“Gas will grow more than oil, especially in the Asia-Pacific Basin region,” he said.
“The big LNG producers know this and it has given them the confidence to move forward with projects even without having all of their gas contracted – something they never would have done in the past.”
In fact, having a substantial portion of uncontracted gas could be good for producers in the current climate, according to Newman.
“Regional gas markets are no longer discrete pools – they are rapidly becoming interconnected,” he said.
“This is happening much faster than analysts had expected, and it is fuelling the LNG spot market from uncontracted gas. With high North American prices making transportation more economic, LNG producers may now have a preference for having say 20% of their production uncontracted.”
Newman has no doubt that there will be enough tankers to deal with the burgeoning LNG output coming onstream over the next decade.
“Shipyard order books are full, and there is an argument that the industry has over-ordered tanker capacity,” he said.
“We are seeing a trend towards bigger tankers. These huge tankers will probably serve large, contracted customers and the existing smaller tankers will handle the spot market.”
With the US having difficulty in getting new LNG terminals built, Newman said it made sense for LNG producers to look at new-generation tankers that could regasify their cargo onboard.
“For LNG producers being able to access the North American market is very important,” he said.