The report, Australian Energy: National and State Projections to 2029-30, said primary energy consumption over the medium term to 2009-10 was projected to grow at an average rate of 2.1%. Over the long term, energy use in Australia is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.9%, to reach 8728 petajoules in 2029-30.

Growth in domestic use of natural gas would remain strong, with total consumption projected to more than double to about 2100 petajoules in the next 25 years.

“Expected strong growth in peak electricity generation and the alumina industry, as well as in the exports of liquefied natural gas, are the key elements to the gas outlook,” said ABARE acting executive Karen Schneider.

“Beginning from the early to mid 2010s, natural gas demand in eastern Australia is expected to exceed local supply in eastern Australia. The demand gap is projected to rise to about 40% of the eastern Australian gas market by 2029-30.”

Schneider said that in the absence of major new oil discoveries, Australia's reliance on imported liquid fuels would also increase.

“The share of imported liquid fuels in total liquid fuels consumption is projected to increase from 22 per cent currently to 51 per cent by 2029-30,” she said.

Coal would also remain an important fuel and was expected to continue to account for 70% per cent of the fuel mix, ABARE found.

While energy consumption was forecast to grow, its consumption per dollar of GDP was projected to decline by 1.1% a year in Australia.

“This suggests that in 2029-30, 25% will be needed to produce a dollar of output compared with 2003-04,” ABARE said.

“Growing by an average 2.1%, electricity demand is projected to reach 351 TWh by 2029-30. To meet this demand, power generating capacity of approximately 75 GW will be needed by then. As Australia’s electricity generation assets are relatively old, a large proportion of this forecast capacity will be built over the outlook period.”

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