"All Pohokura gas should be marketed before the final financial investment decision is taken, which should be before mid-2004 but after we have answered the question of what are the proven reserves," Taylor told EnergyReview.Net.
"Marketing of gas is fundamental to people investing in the project and, although nothing is certain, once the project economics stack up, the partners should give the final approval for Pohokura to be developed in accordance with Commerce Commission conditions.
"Shell has not marketed any gas in New Zealand for years so we don't know the price we are likely to get, but it will be significantly higher than Maui or Kapuni. There will be a premium to pay for security of gas supply for the next generation of electricity generation.
"We should issue RFPs within the next month or so, those are Shell's aspirations, anyway," he said.
Taylor, who is also Shell NZ exploration and production managing director, leaves this country at the end of the year to head back to Brisbane.
Under recent restructuring of its global EP business, Royal Dutch Shell is making Singapore the Asia-Pacific exploration/operations base, with Taylor's position effectively disappearing.
Taylor said the reviews of Shell Petroleum Mining and operator Shell Todd Oil Services were now essentially complete, with a halving of SPM's 25 staff numbers to about 12 likely by the first quarter of 2004.
"By the end of 2004 SPM will have ceased to exist, except as a legal entity, and will be part of the regional Asia-Pacific commercial team. It will also contract out some functions to STOS, such as finance."
Last July STOS general manager Paul Zealand said the new-look operator would be about 15% smaller (about 55-60 fewer positions), with approximately 60% of staff continuing in their existing roles with only minor changes. Others would be selected to fill new roles within the organisation, with the restructuring completed by early 2004.
Taylor said any roles for SPM and STOS in any future New Zealand exploration or production would depend on the "new framework for future investment", which would not be finalised until all uncertainties surrounding the possible 1tcf Pohokura development and Maui redetermination had been resolved.
"There is potential for increased recovery from Maui, maybe Ihi, but until there is a satisfactory, mutually agreed solution, there is no incentive to invest."
However, Taylor believed all outstanding matters could be resolved in time to utilise the Diamond Offshore Drilling rig, probably the Ocean Bounty again, which is due to arrive in New Zealand waters next March.
"Ihi is the major item and it might not be two early for the Bounty. However, the drilling and development of Ihi would not be done at Gulf of Mexico prices; it would probably cost about $NZ120 million and we would have to have certain legal and contractual climates."
When the Ocean Bounty was off Taranaki last summer there were rumours that the Maui partners - Shell, Todd Energy and OMV - would drill Ihi, within the Maui licence, to recover perhaps 90 Petajoules of "stranded" carbon dioxide-rich gas. Some commentators thought a second Maui South well was possible.
However, Taylor dismissed talk of Maui South, saying that was below the gas-water contact "and (independent expert) Netherland Sewell found that conclusively as well."
