The wildcard in the oil market seems to be Russia. Earlier in the week, the Russians delayed a decision on whether to keep a pledge to OPEC to maintain its current output levels until June.
High oil prices had fuelled Russia's growth during the past three years and Russian officials believe limiting oil exports would not be in the interest of the country. Russia pledged to curb oil production in the first quarter of 2002 by 150,000 bopd. OPEC secretary general, Mr Ali Rodriguez, is convinced that Russian authorities will maintain the cuts.
While Russia and OPEC battle it out over production cuts, an energy conference in Tokyo was told surging Asian demand for energy would make it very dependent on the Middle East oil. Analysts have forecasted that by 2020, Asian dependence on Middle East oil will raise to 82 per cent.
The conference was told Asian nations will need to take measures to strengthen energy security as increasing demand will make key sea lanes vulnerable to terrorism, piracy and political instability.
China is expected to lead Asian demand for energy with Chinese demand for oil alone forecasted to be greater than the total demand for oil in Japan today, analysts said.
