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Expect long haul for low gas prices

THE US-based Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has presented its 2014 State of the Markets Rep...

Expect long haul for low gas prices

The report, which examines natural gas, electric, and other energy trends in the US, found that record cold temperatures in early 2014 stressed the country's natural gas infrastructure and power markets, briefly pushing up prices but offering a false dawn for those hoping to see a recovery in gas prices.

The cost per MMBtu remained relatively low and stable for the remainder of the year, depressed by record breaking levels of production.

That's not good news for companies looking to produce gas, and the liquids story is a similar tale of over-production and crumbling prices, which has implications for the oil and gas industry activity in 2015 and beyond, with exploration and production drilling expected to decline.

The benchmark Henry Hub price averaged $US4.32/MMBtu [$A5.48] in 2014, 16% higher than in 2013, while prices were 14-43% higher at key hubs throughout the country, with the Chicago Citygate experiencing the highest increase due to its supply coming from Canada and high levels of demand.

The biggest spike was at the Transco Zone 6 Non-NY hub, which reached an astonishing $US123/MMBtu [$A156] in January 2013's Polar Vortex.

Demand was generally high overall, with natural gas demand in the Midwest in 2014 was the highest on record, but prices collapsed in the Northeast due to growing Marcellus Shale supplies flooding the market

Gas demand peaked at 70.7 billion cubic feet per day, and gas storage levels hit at their lowest levels since 2003, however they peaked at near records during the spring and summer, when excess production is typically stored.

By the end of the year, inventories stood at 3.2 trillion cubic feet, 8% above 2013 levels, and just below records.

FERC predicts downward pressure on prices going into the northern summer, because of all the gas likely to be injected.

Overall gas production grew 5% in 2014, averaging 68.4Bcfpd and breaking the record set in 2013, with two shale formations, the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and the Eagle Ford in Texas, accounting for 34% of the production increase, averaging 14Bcfpd and 4Bcfpd respectively.

FERC is now concerned that a prolonged low crude oil price and natural gas prices could result in slowing growth or even a decline in natural gas production in time, as gas becomes less attractive to producers.

A backlog of uncompleted wells could help maintain production levels in the near future.

As of the middle of January, there were around 1100 uncompleted wells in Marcellus Shale.

The forward curve at most major trading points indicates market participants expect prices to remain low for the rest of 2015, aside from Boston and New York City, where gas futures prices are around $US10/MMbtu [$A12.68].

FERC expects coal-fired generation may pick up, and low oil prices may see increased use of oil for power generation in New England and New York.

The Northeast became a net exporter of natural gas for the first time last summer and future pipeline expansions are targeting exports to eastern Canada, the Midwest, the Southeast, and the Gulf Coast regions for both domestic use and LNG exports.

Eight LNG projects had been approved, with four under construction including those at Sabine Pass, expected to enter service in 2016, and at Freeport LNG, Cove Point LNG, and Cameron LNG.

Reliance on LNG imports continued to decrease.

Exports from US LNG terminals averaged 100MMcfpd in 2014, 67% below the 2013 levels, while imports from Canaport LNG into New England averaged 49MMcfpd, 52% below 2013 as cheap domestic gas makes inroads into the market.

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