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Visionary predicts petroleum future

INDUSTRY veteran Andrew Hopkins has told Energy News petroleum companies should take the lead in ...

Visionary predicts petroleum future

A sociologist by training, Dr Hopkins is a world renowned expert in process safety.

He has studied safety, culture and risk across the petroleum sector and has written in depth on the deadly 1990s Longford refinery gas explosion, the Texas City Oil Refinery in 2005,the Macondo blow-out in 2010 and more recently a study on two deadly pipeline disasters in the US.

Now he is using those decades of experience in the petroleum and coal sectors to write about the risks of climate change.

"I have a lot of knowledge and contacts in these industries, and I wanted to write something that would help the petroleum industry has something really positive to contribute to climate change, because it is something I am very concerned about," he told Energy News about his recently published paper.

"The petroleum sector isn't just a short term bridge to a low-carbon solution, it has things to offer into the longer term, and it really does have things to offer that the renewable energy industry does not have."

Dr Hopkins' paper looks beyond merely a carbon-constrained zero emissions target, which is the aim of the renewables sector, and examines the ways in which the petroleum sector can use its skills and evolve to work with renewable energy.

Cutting coal

"One of the first things the petroleum industry needs to do is to cut loose from coal and say that our interests don't coincide," he explained.

"The petroleum industry should be interested in putting a price on carbon, because that will drive coal out of the marketplace sooner, leaving gas as the bridge to the short-term low-carbon future, and we can replace gas with coal, which has twice the climate change impact of gas."

He said a carbon price needed to be applied globally to work, but was the best method of enacting behavioural change.

Hopkins said that once a carbon tax or emissions trading scheme is enacted and carbon is priced in the economy, he said companies such as Origin Energy and AGL Energy are "ready to go".

"Origin owns coal and gas power stations, and they really are quite embarrassed by these coal facilities and they really don't want to be generating power in this way, but it is cheap, and as soon as the settings are right they will modify, change or scrap the plants to stop using coal," he said.

"They are not committed to coal, so we just need a price signal."

Beyond that, Hopkins doesn't believe carbon capture and storage is a magic bullet to get to zero emissions, although he suspects it has a role to play.

"If they rely on that, they won't win against renewables," he said.

While CCS is subject of studies from petroleum companies, if successfully it will provide a new lease of life for the coal industry.

"If the problem of CCS is effectively solved, the competitive advantage that gas has from an environmental point of view will be wiped out," he said.

Dr Hopkins said there were many long-term questions about CCS, but it was merely another step on the road.

"No matter how effective carbon capture and storage is, it can only be part of the solution to climate change," he said.

Carbon capture

Dr Hopkins favours not only capturing the carbon but putting it to work using CO2 to feed algae production, which can then be turned into biochar using pyrolysis.

This would not only create gas and bio-fuel as by-products, but could be used to enhance soil for agricultural purposes or stored underground.

That work could be undertaken on a massive scale, he said.

That's a key step in his vision of moving the petroleum sector from low emissions beyond zero emissions.

Hopkins sees the potential for the sector to play a role in reducing emissions, such as developing technologies to capture CO2 emissions from the Arctic permafrost, which some say are melting because of climate change.

"We are seeing vast amounts of methane being released in localised areas, so I think there is a real opportunity for the gas industry to explore the issues around how to capture this stuff as it is released from the sea bed, because they are already pretty good at extracting gas in deep waters," he said.

"By capturing it you can at the very least burn it and turn it from methane to CO2, which is a lot less harmful. Or, perhaps even transport it to market.

"This is one of the ways of combatting one of the natural ways of emissions, which is something renewables just can't do, which is why I say the petroleum industry can go beyond zero human emissions."

Dr Hopkins also sees a lot of promise for second generation biofuels, such as algae and seaweed, which don't have the issues of earlier biofuels.

He said his paper has had some good feedback, including Origin managing director Grant King, who is on the record about the sector's need to get on the front foot.

The paper was released last month.

While conceding he doesn't have all the answers, Dr Hopkins believes that with time and energy the petroleum sector can tackle its emissions problem, deliberate and fugitive emissions, and take a lead in the energy landscape of the 21st Century.

The paper can be read here:

http://tai.org.au/content/climate-pariah-climate-saviour-what-petroleum-industry-can-do-about-climate-change

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