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Woodside a beacon of hope amid carnage

A NIGHTMARE earnings season and doubts about its growth assets, particularly Browse, triggered a ...

Woodside a beacon of hope amid carnage

Deloitte's WA Index update this week revealed Woodside's market cap fell from $23.028 billion on January 31 to $20.886 billion on February 29, despite Brent crude rising by 5.2% to close at $US36.30 per barrel in the weeks prior.

The rise in crude prices reflected news that Saudi Arabia and Russia had notionally agreed to freeze oil output at January 2016 levels.

Scepticism of the move by the world's two largest producers remains high because at that level the market is still oversupplied to the tune of around two million barrels of oil per day.

However, Deloitte says it's still "a big step forward" as the first significant cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in 15 years.

Amid all this, Woodside's strong bottom line and cash position was overshadowed by negative news, starting with the $US1.1 billion worth of asset impairments it booked for 2015 which provided most of its write-downs.

This included a $128 million recognition of an onerous lease at the new Balnaves field it purchased last year from Apache Corporation.

Balnaves, which Woodside purchased along with Apache's 13% interest in the Chevron-operated Wheatstone project, itself which has just been delayed by six months, has caused the Perth oiler some headaches of late.

Woodside managing director Peter Coleman admitted to analysts late last month that Balnaves reserves were closer to the 1P level than 2P level, and earlier this week Woodside said it had terminated the FPSO services agreement with Bumi Armada - which owns and operates the Armada Claire FPSO that produces from the Balnaves oil field on behalf of the WA-49-L joint venture - for "performance issues".

Earnings season also saw Coleman pressed on the Browse development, which is currently in front end engineering and design, but which many analysts doubt will see the light of day in the foreseeable future oil price environment.

Coleman conceded that the joint venture partners - Woodside (30.6%), Shell Australia (27%), BP Developments Australia (17.33%), MIMI Browse (14.4%) and PetroChina (10.67%) - will need to decide whether the oil rout is part of a deeper structural shift or a short-term malaise.

He appeared to indicate that this could then help inform their final investment decision in the back half about 2016 on whether Browse will go ahead at all.

Morgans Financial senior resources analyst Adrian Prendergast said this earnings season was particularly tough for oil companies and initially impacted sentiment heading into the period.

While positive oil prices have softened that blow, rallying from below $US30/bbl to closer to $40/bbl this week, Woodside's write-downs and updates on Browse clearly impacted its share price, despite the underlying strength of its existing assets.

"Woodside is showing quite good discipline by reviewing all its projects in this environment, but there is now a question mark over whether they will proceed with Browse, and that will weigh on sentiment," Prendergast told Energy News.

"At the time of the acquisition of Balnaves as part of the Apache assets there was more upside potential in the reserves - maybe to what the 2P number was indicating - but it looks like that isn't as big as they first thought, and they're really guiding to the 1P number now."

Yet Prendergast maintains the view that Woodside will "… certainly outperform in a falling market, just due to the safety of its assets, high margins and strong balance sheet" but at the same time it still has some question marks over its growth assets".

Woodside did have some positive news last month, with former Shell Australia boss Ann Pickard joining Woodside as a director. She would already have significant knowledge of the Perth-based oiler as Royal Dutch Shell maintains a significant holding in it.

Pickard retired from Shell on February 1 after a 15-year stint.

Woodside also inked a project development agreement with US-based Sempra Energy for the Port Arthur LNG natural gas liquefaction facility in Texas, after Coleman said last year that his company had set an aggressive decision-making schedule on whether it should move forward on it or now, despite an LNG glut forecasted to last until 2022.

Sempra is experienced in LNG, as it has another project, Cameron LNG in Hackberry, Louisiana, which is due to go online near the end of next year.

Woodside also hosted an "open house" this week to dialogue with the local community about the Grassy Point LNG development on British Columbia's northwest coast, as part of an environmental assessment certificate to get the project moving.

With such solid-looking projects and LNG demand due expected to pick up post-2022 in a market in which energy intelligence firm Industrial Info Resources believes up to 30 LNG markets could open up, Prendergast believes Woodside should be given more credit for its discipline.

"Even though it may not yet be reflected in the share price, I think they should be marked up for the strong commitment and discipline that the management have shown," he said.

"They're not really pounding capital into assets that won't be sanctioned.

"That discipline was demonstrated by the fact that Woodside didn't up the size of its bid for Oil Search. Then there is the fact that they are only going ahead with projects that really do have a significant chance of being sanctioned and returning value."

Either way, the company will find out first-hand just how happy shareholders are with its decisions and growth projects at its annual general meeting in Perth on April 21.

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