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Wireline: a potential LNG overbuild

THE year that was saw a slew of liquefied natural gas projects getting the go-ahead in Australia....

Wireline: a potential LNG overbuild

There were three final investment decisions made, including Shell's Prelude FLNG, Chevron's Wheatstone and the APLNG project in Gladstone in Queensland, which takes the total committed LNG projects to five.

The industry will watch for developments in some other key projects including Shell/Petrochina's project through Arrow and Flex's floating LNG, among others.

Already the costs of Inpex's Ichthys project, the latest to get a financial investment decision, have been revised up by 50% and others such as Woodside's Pluto and Chevron's Gorgon have been hit by cost blowouts.

While APLNG, backed by Conoco and Origin could see a second LNG train, Woodside is yet to make a decision on a potential second train at its Pluto project.

And from the signs from the company, it appears it might lack sufficient gas for a second train - forcing it to source gas and pressuring project economics.

Adding to its woes at Pluto, Woodside has also delayed a final investment decision on its Browse project. Not unexpected but significant nevertheless.

Given all this, and the fact there is significant community opposition in both Queensland and Western Australia, one could be forgiven for inferring that all is not well in the LNG space in Australia.

But wait, there is the whole supply side that is fast being turned on its head.

A recent report on the long-term outlook for North American LNG from a federal advisory body in the US that caught Wireline's attention, is pushing this scribe to the LNG circumspect camp when it comes to more Australian LNG export projects.

The said report was released with the usual fanfare by the National Petroleum Council, which is an advisory body to the US Energy Secretary.

Interestingly, the study found the projected supply in North America can fulfil any projected level of demand in the report's time period of 2035.

It recognises the wide range in the estimates of future demand for natural gas.

"The most aggressive estimate of total natural gas demand, including transportation, is 133 billion cubic feet per day by 2035, an 85% increase from 2010 natural gas requirements of 72Bcfd," the report stated.

"It appears that even a 2035 potential demand requirement of up to 133Bcf/d could be supplied."

It further adds this high potential demand could be supplied at a current estimated wellhead production cost range in 2007 dollars of $US4 to $8 per million Btu, which Wire believes to be a reasonable cost.

The latest report comes after a four year interval - the last one was released in 2007 and couldn't be in starker contrast to the earlier report, which painted a picture of severe natural gas shortage - one that could be overcome with energy efficiency and more LNG imports.

That outlook led to the race in proposing LNG import terminals and at one point there were at least 60 LNG import project plans on the board - the reality of shale revolution resulted in one import terminal getting commissioned, which now is being converted as an export facility.

The NPC report does acknowledge the unforeseen expansion in unconventional gas resulting in the supply equation getting altered.

And given that over 400 individuals participated in the 2011 study and the council members comprise industry and academic heavyweights and federal and state policy makers, among others, the findings do represent the prevailing consensus on the shape of the industry.

And with the view being one advocating increased natural gas use, the report's findings and its recommendations will carry currency in Congress.

It is only a matter of time before more North American producers are lured into the Pacific Basin markets of Japan, South Korea and perhaps even Malaysia and India, where prices are significantly higher.

And it will be only aided by the expansion of the Panama Canalin 2014, which could reconfigure LNG trade routes by potentially allowing for exports from UG Gulf into Asia.

It is only a matter of time before more North American producers are lured into the Pacific Basin markets of Japan, South Korea and perhaps even Malaysia and India.

This article first appeared in a different form in the January/February edition of RESOURCESTOCKS

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