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Shell taking its time with Woodside

WITH the restrictions on selling its remaining 24% stake in Woodside Petroleum lifted, just what will Anglo-Dutch supermajor Shell do now?

Shell taking its time with Woodside

Opinions range from selling the stakes back to Woodside in exchange for equity in some of its LNG projects to an outright sale to a possible predator, with BHP Billiton once again mooted as one of the sharks in the water.

What is clear though is that Woodside's share price has recovered sufficiently from the lows of below $A30 a share in September to make it at least marginally attractive for Shell to divest itself of the stake.

The Australian quoted Merrill Lynch analyst David Heard as saying Shell might swap all or part of its stake in Woodside for interests in some or all of its three key LNG projects, which could in turn ease some of the Perth-based company's funding requirements - particularly for Browse, in which Woodside holds a 46% equity.

Heard said Shell might also be waiting to see if Woodside could secure third party gas for a proposed Pluto LNG expansion train before selling its stake.

Intersuisse oil and gas analyst Nicholas Wirubov supported this line of thought, telling Energy News Premium that a shares for assets swap between the two companies held appeal.

"With Woodside operating the North West Shelf, Pluto, Browse and Sunrise, there is tremendous scope for interests in some of these projects being swapped for the shares held by Shell. Shell could be appointed operator of Browse and/or Sunrise, leaving Woodside to concentrate on the NWS and Pluto as well as its other oil interests.

"Under the operatorship of Shell, both the Browse and Sunrise could get a new lease of life."

And what about the takeover talk?

While BHP continues to hog the rumour-mongering, the petroleum arm of the world's biggest miner has already made a big purchase this year, snapping up US shale producer Petrohawk Energy in August for $US12.1 billion.

BHP no doubt still has access to the resources to buy Woodside but the company has suggested that it is focused on integrating its shale assets and has limited interest in picking up more shale assets.

Wirubov added a successful bid for Woodside would probably require a $A50-plus per share offer and it was unlikely BHP would pay such a high price.

"I suspect that the balance of the Shell holding will be placed to institutions, with possibly a tranche going to existing shareholders in a priority offering. That would require a lot of work, but should pacify existing shareholders that control is not being sold."

Another possibility has been raised by JP Morgan, which suggested that the stake might be bought up by Japanese buyers keen to secure LNG supplies or China as a hedge against the high costs of LNG imports.

Whatever the case might be, it is clear that Shell is taking its time, with Woodside chief executive officer Peter Coleman saying in late October that Shell had given no indication that it was in any hurry to sell.

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