Electricity has become scarce, and nothing drives prices higher, and faster, than scarcity - whether its real or imagined.

The provision of electricity has been overlooked, or under-provided, in most of the world's fast-growing economies.

The next few years will see a dash to catch up, with China and India leading a power station building boom that will, in turn, lead to a rush to buy fuel.

Sky-high oil prices have been matched in recent weeks by record coal prices as shortages bite and countries that have not provided sufficient fuel for their needs discover supplies are not readily available.

Quite simply, governments around the world failed to recognise the size of the problem even though most governments insist on retaining tight control over the production of electricity, or control of the industry through building and-or licensing restrictions.

On the flipside, most customers for power are private - leading to a classic disconnect between supply and demand.

The demand side of the equation is easy to understand, with the Chinese industrial revolution the most obvious example of booming demand.

The supply side is a mess with a multitude of conflicting pressures. Not only is the private sector demanding ever more electricity, but there is uncertainty over how to provide it given that most forms of power generation have been branded politically incorrect.

Fossil fuels have been condemned by environmentalists as too polluting. Nuclear power, the protestors say, is even worse.

The suggested solution was to opt for renewable power and alternative power sources such as wind, solar and tidal.

But, as everyone is discovering, the renewables dream is proving elusive. Not only is the price of power from wind turbines, or solar panels, much higher than conventional sources, the systems which generate it are unable to provide the bulk loads needed to operate big factories, or metal refineries.

Waiting for a solution to burst from the pack of alternative electricity sources has proved to be largely a waste of time. Something might come along eventually, but it's not here now.

The solution, which also fits the description of back to the future, is to return to the proven electricity supply methods: coal, gas, oil and nuclear.

The fastest way to boost power supplies is gas, which is what's happening on the west coast of Australia and in the US, where gas turbine construction projects are booming.

The second-fastest is coal-fired power, which is the preferred route in China, the world's biggest coal producer, and fast becoming a major thermal coal importer for the first time. But coal-fired power is more polluting than gas and more thirsty for water, so its future may not be as assured. Much will depend on the development of so-called clean coal technologies.

Nuclear is the slow way to power provision, but it is the route preferred in Britain, which has drawn up plans for a new generation of nuclear power plants.

Careful followers of economic theory will recognise what appears to be happening in the resources sector. Rather than following the traditional boom-bust cycle, which has been the traditional route over the past 50 years, the world has entered a much longer wave of rising demand.

The economist Joseph Schumpeter identified the "economic wave" phenomena in the 1930s when developing his theory of short, medium and long-term waves of expansion and contraction.

In Schumpeter's world, which included an 18-year stint lecturing at Harvard University in the US, a short-term wave lasted about four years - pretty much the boom-bust cycle seen in recent periods of resource sector investment (and disinvestment). A medium-term wave lasted about nine years, followed by 18 and 54-year waves.

It would be a brave man to say what wave we're on today, but with China booming and with India to come it's a reasonable bet that a 54-year event is underway - hence the back-to-the-future phenomena being observed in the base metal sector which many investors had written off as having done its best work.

If Schumpeter's 54-year wave is the underlying force in the resources sector then we are indeed in for a period of sustained investment opportunity. In fact, most people would happily take a nine-year or an 18-year wave.

Last year's big metal price and share price shake-out might easily be seen by a casual observer as the tail end of a Schumpeter four-year wave - and the current uptick as the force of a longer-term wave taking over, creating the feeling that we're starting all over.

Supporting Schumpeter's view of long-term waves is abundant evidence that China's appetite for metals has not dimmed, and while there will be peaks and troughs the fundamental direction is still up - but only if the Chinese economic engine can get the power required to drive it.

That's why a search for the next big thing leads investors back to the power question, more specifically who's got it, and can they sell it for a profit to cash in on the looming, worldwide, energy shortage.

The oil price is one clue to the power shortage, but oil at $US100 a barrel is also an indication of "peak oil", the theory fast becoming fact that world oil production has peaked.

The coal price is a second clue to the power shortage. Prices for both coking (steel making) and thermal coal (for producing electricity) have more than doubled over the past year.

Rising fuel prices, and a shortage of electrical generating capacity, underpin this "power at all costs" investment hypothesis, which is based loosely on the energy demands of China and India where power rationing is underway, and both government and industry are scrambling to plug gaps in national electricity grids.

Rapid growth in both big Asian countries is also stretching infrastructure, adding to demand for the base metals, and iron ore. But, where poor roads and wonky bridges can be a transport nuisance, an absence of electricity is a show-stopper, and a few weeks ago the show almost did stop in China.

Heavy snow in January and February brought down power lines, cut coal production and curtailed output of key raw materials such as aluminium and steel.

Imports, which should have made up the domestic shortfall, also dried up.

Australian coal mines were hit by heavy rain forcing at least five producers to declare "force majeure" - invoking the so-called "act of God" clause in their sales contracts.

Vietnam chimed in with news that it's going to slash coal exports from next year to ensure it has sufficient to meet its own requirements.

And in South Africa the lights were turned out when government power utility, Eskom, suddenly discovered that it didn't have enough coal in its stockpiles, or didn't have enough power generating capacity, or had completing botched the management of its electricity demand.

Of these excuses the most believable is the third - a management disaster, which had actually been 10 years in the making.

If you're an investor, translating this into a money-making opportunity is relatively easy - pick the best of the energy-linked stocks:

In oil and gas, that means stocks such as Woodside, Santos, Oil Search, Australian Worldwide Exploration and Nexus Energy, as well as the leaders in the up-and-coming coal seam methane sector - Queensland Gas Company, Arrow Energy and Sunshine Gas.

In coal, it means Macarthur, Straits, and Riversdale. In uranium, it means Paladin, Toro, and Marathon.

In alternatives and renewables, there are no clear leaders - but keep looking because there's a political will to see them succeed.

First published in a different form in the April issue of RESOURCESTOCKS