The last two years in office have seen the Biden administration successfully pass two of the biggest legislative achievements in the energy space - the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act.
Together, these two Bills allowed the government to allocate over US$300 billion in energy, climate and decarbonisation spending.
However, as voters head to the polls on Tuesday to elect a new congress, there are two potential electoral outcomes (based on the presumption Democrats do not retain control of both chambers) which will determine how this cash is allocated and whether Biden can pursue his agenda for the remainder of his term.
GOP takes the House but not the Senate
Current polling by FiveThirtyEight suggests the Republicans will take the House by a landslide. The data updated overnight showed the GOP has roughly a 4-in-5 chance of taking control of the chamber. However, the fate of the House rests on the outcome of a handful of seats.
Should the GOP take the House, the Biden administration will be in a similar position to former president Donald Trump in 2018 with a divided Congress.
It limits the Republicans' power to push their own legislative agenda as the Senate would act as a check on budget reconciliation. That said, the House is known as the "power of the purse" and is where all budgetary measures are introduced.
This could see the GOP shutdown new spending on climate, such as US investment for overseas climate finance, and redirect cash to oil and gas projects.
There may be room for compromise between the Democrats and Republicans for future legislation similar to the NOPEC Bill which allowed OPEC and its members to be sued under US competition laws.
Furthermore, the Republicans would have control of all House committees. This would include the Select Committee on Climate Crisis which is currently chaired by Democrat Kathy Castor and the Energy and Commerce standing Committee chaired by Democrat Frank Pallone.
GOP takes both House and Senate
The midterms this year have seen more people head to the polls earlier than in 2020. Given early electors generally swing towards the left, Democrats could be in for a surprise and retain or even build on their one-seat majority provided by vice president (and president of the Senate) Kamila Harris as tiebreaker.
The contests are close in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Each of these states rest on a knife's edge. The Republicans only need to gain one seat to form a majority.
If the GOP capture both House and Senate, the party will have a clear path for their own energy agenda which includes overhauling onshore and offshore permitting for oil and gas exploration and development.
Republican senator Shelley Capito has an Act in the wings - the Simplify Timelines and Assure Regulatory Transparency Bill, which would limit state governments from blocking major oil and gas projects, such as the Keystone pipeline.
The Act would also immediately approve the Mountain Valley pipeline.
If the GOP gain both chambers, the party will also have the opportunity to confirm new Supreme Court nominees should one arise.
Notably, former president Trump is calling on Republicans to impeach Biden. With a majority in the Senate, the party would have the power to remove him from office.
