The oil and gas industry is largely made up of those with a hard science background for whom data and proof make sense "which is different to the political reality we face," Credit Suisse analyst Saul Kavonic said Tuesday.

 

"Politicians don't respond to 500-page fact-driven briefings, they respond to political pressure," he said. 

 

The issue is to avoid coal's fate. Thus far the gas industry has tried to explain how it is far less carbon-intensive than coal, and can back up renewables to the sound of crickets, on a good day. 

 

LNG sent to Asia provides cleaner energy than coal, and China's rapacious demand is direct result of policies like its Battle for Blue Skies and aggressive enforcement of coal-to-gas switching plans in multiple northern provinces. Again, crickets. 

 

Those in the cities are more concerned with Australia's direct emissions and the supposed dangers of fraccing, thanks to successful activist campaigns. 

 

APPEA's fact-based stance works better for government than for politics, Kavonic argued. 

 

"We're not in the coal bucket yet. We could be the next coal. It's not about facts, it's about general perception," he said. 

 

Reuters columnist Clyde Russell, who chaired the Tuesday panel, said "the coal industry never saw what was coming up behind them'. 

 

Community engagement could also be managed better. 

 

Professor Samantha Hepburn of Deakin University's law school in Victoria has spent a lot of time studying the varied bans, moratoria and restrictions on drilling in Australia. 

 

There are several ways forward but a success in Queensland did come from revenue sharing with landowners. Technically, the sub-strata belongs to the state, and there is no obligation to share it, but it has helped projects sentiment and armed sentiment. 

 

In contrast, landowners can make a lot of money from windfarms as they own the actual land they are built on. 

 

Hepburn is in favour of onshore exploration but thinks stakeholders have not been properly engaged; a town hall meeting where they are presented with information in what is largely a one way dialogue isn't really enough. 

 

She said working in partnership with shared goals is better. 

 

The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association's head of external affairs Matthew Doman said the impasse is largely political. 

 

New South Wales Labor leader Michael Daley's announcement last week to cancel Santos' Narrabri CSG project was "almost randomly announced," he said, while in "the absurdity of (Victorian Premier) Daniel Andrews' world" fraccing will be banned constitutionally, and he will ignore advice from even the competition watchdog that more drilling is needed to ensure the state's gas supply. 

 

"It's a political response to external community opposition in the cities Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane," he said. 

 

These are two separate issues but they feed into one another as activists try to marry up with farmers who haven't yet had long experience of onshore drilling in their areas. 

 

"Their concern is very real and quite visceral," she said. 

 

"There's so much misinformation out there. I find myself correcting them as I'm interviewing them, which I shouldn't be doing in a situation as an academic professor." 

 

In communities in Queensland where the CSG industry has been active for over a decade there is less pushback and no Lock the Gate signs from Roma to Chinchilla; partly, Doman reasons, this is because the industry got started before social media really took hold as a useful activism tool. 

 

The jobs and benefits flowed in before protesters could scare farmers away from supporting wells on their land, while in areas where projects are still prospective they can create "fear and loathing". 

 

There has been some Queensland pushback when in 2017 the state branch of One Nation ran on an anti-gas platform and Callide candiate Sharon Lohse said then, "This country was forged on agriculture, not coal-seam gas, and agriculture is our future, ¬because without it we don't eat." 

 

The grazier had problems with gas before, after a gas plant contamination scare in 2010 left her unable to return to her property for some time. 

 

"Victoria is no longer like Queensland as it's gone too far," Hepburn said yesterday. 

 

But gas still isn't coal, yet.  

 

And thankfully not one panel member moaned about "latte sippers" in over two hours of discussions, which could be viewed as another step forward.