OPINION

Slugcatcher on Russia's gift to Prelude

IF Ian Fleming had not chosen the title From Russia with Love for the fifth book in his James Bond series Slugcatcher would use it to describe the latest act in the miracle survival of Prelude, Shell's grand but disastrous experiment in floating LNG production.

Slugcatcher
Slugcatcher on Russia's gift to Prelude

 

Unlike the original novel in which Bond gets up to his usual tricks of close encounters with his enemies, great escapes and amorous adventures, to emerge a hero, the Prelude story is largely about failure.

If there is a common thread connecting Bond to Prelude it is the way in which the man and the LNG barge refuse to die, bobbing up repeatedly to fight another day - as he will even after being killed in his latest escapade.

Several times over the past three years Prelude has been saved by the dogged determination of Shell, the oil major which designed, built, and operates the giant barge off Australia's north-west coast for a syndicate that includes Japanese and Korean interests.

From the day the unfortunately-named Prelude's keel was laid in a Korean shipyard more than a decade ago the monster barge has been plagued with delays, cost blow-outs, accidents, incidents and labour unrest.

Rather than being a Prelude, which infers it's the first of many floating LNG barges for Shell, it should have been named Finale - as The Slug suggested early last year, and if not Finale then Final Curtain as the drama draw to a close.

But, with typical Anglo/Dutch determination Shell persevered long after others could have given up, and if the latest news is a guide Shell could keep on persevering because demand for LNG has never been higher, nor has the price.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is Prelude's latest get-out-of jail card and even if Shell had been on the cusp of abandoning the concept of giant barges sucking up orphaned gas in the middle of an ocean somewhere the appeal of the technology has never been stronger - if only it would work as promised.

The gift of high prices which Russia has delivered to Shell and every other oil and gas producer is the first reason for taking a fresh look at Prelude which, as far as anyone outside Shell knows today, is still offline courtesy of industrial action with a restart possible in the next week or so.

Cancelled cargoes will be costing Shell millions and even if it can be made up later the prices available today might not be around when work resumes.

A second reason for a renewed visit to Prelude is to wonder how it will be treated when Shell prepares its next set of accounts because one of the corollary effects of the Russian oil and gas boom is that oil and gas assets are soaring in value thanks to the profits they're generating.

Last week Shell said it planned to revise upward the value of its oil and gas assets by as much as US$4.5 billion thanks to the higher prices being enjoyed by all producers and because Shell management has formed a view that the high prices will be with us for some time.

Credit for the remarkable recovery in the energy market after the price crash of early 2020 goes in part to the environmental movement which successfully campaigned against investment in oil and gas exploration, creating perfect conditions for today's shortages.

Western governments should share in the recognition because they fell for the "death to oil" mantra of the protest movement only to discover that while you might not like oil and gas it's awfully hard to love without it.

On top of the shortage created by environmentalists and governments can be layered the territory grabbing madness of Russia's President, Vladimir Putin.

If Russia had behaved as a civilized country, and if it wasn't ruled by a man who wants to recreate the Soviet Union, or the Russian empire of 200 years ago, then Ukraine would not be a war zone and the world would not be turning its back on Russia oil and gas.

Unfortunately, that's exactly what has happened and is likely to continue happening for some time which is why Shell has decided that it's time to write back into its accounts the value of oil and gas assets only recently depreciated. 

The logical question which flows from that background and Russia's self-imposed isolation and removal from the ranks of civilized countries is what value Prelude?

Given that the full cost of the barge and its associated infrastructure has never been clearly stated by Shell an outside is left with a best guess of $24 billion (plus or minus), a number which requires a big annual profit to justify the capital outlay.

Two years ago when oil crashed there is no way Prelude could wash its face (accounting jargon for pay its way).

But, with oil sitting at or above US$100 a barrel, and demand for gas strong and growing it is entirely possible that Prelude could be profitable, if it was in production.

Whether Russia's gift of high gas prices to Prelude will be enough for Shell to persist with the big barge concept will be interesting to see, but for now the project looks like surviving - until its next crisis.

 

 

 

 

 

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