While talks about supply caps since January has lifted spot oil prices, and even had the International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol gushing his enthusiasm, the latest oil market data reveals that both the Saudis and Russia ramped up their production in February.
The Saudis increased their daily output by 14,000bopd last month to 10.14MMbopd while Russia reached a new high of 11.08MMbopd, according to OPEC's latest report issued this week.
Both Russia and Saudi Arabia will only take action to control production if other big oil producers join them, and Iran has been strident that it has no interest in joining the club.
Iran called the proposed agreement "a joke" and pledged to ramp up production now that its nuclear sanctions shackles have been lifted from its shoulders, saying over the weekend it would not partake in any production freeze deal until its output reaches its 4MMbopd target.
But all this posturing won't last too much longer, according to RBC, which believes the "fragile five" - Libya, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Iraq - are at "imminent risk for systemic crises".
RBC also believes the "smaller, flusher Gulf Cooperation Council states" such as United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar, with their small populations and large sovereign wealth funds, were better placed to ride out a continued "lower-for-longer" storm.
Yet even some senior GCC officials have expressed anxiety about the current price environment and RBC said there was a "real desire" to see prices rebound to at least $US50/bbl - which the firm believes will occur in the last quarter of 2016.
"Hence, we continue to believe that more proactive market management measures may be on the table later this year if the recent production freeze announcement, along with improving supply and demand dynamics, fails to push prices materially higher," RBC said.
For now, oil producers are trying to stay afloat by cutting spending, running down reserves and ramping up borrowing, particularly two of the more distressed producers Iraq and Angola, who have both planned to slash their capital spend by 39% and more than 50% respectively.
Iraq signed onto an International Monetary Fund monitored program in January in the hope of securing between $US6-7 billon in direct budgetary support and is reportedly looking to revive plans to issue $2 billion in Eurobonds this year.
Venezuela's inflation is forecast to hit 720% while its economy is set to contract by 8% this year, and since it is unable to tap the World Bank and IMF for immediate assistance, it hopes China will keep its chequebook open.
Venezuela has borrowed more than $50 billion from the Asian giant since 2007 through oil-for-loan agreements.
Nigeria, meanwhile, is not only dealing with low oil but a virulent extremist threat, like fellow OPEC member Iraq. The African nation has also approached the World Bank and the African Development Bank for $3.5 billion to meet its severe budget shortfall.
