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The junior's optimism comes as the third consecutive well, Mailisu III-3, in its seven-well program was production tested at 25-50 barrels of oil per day, with a minor water cut.
"The production rate is significant given the shallow depth of the reservoir (from 600-650m around well-1) and will therefore have relatively low field development costs," Caspian said.
The company added that the oil recovery from this well and its two predecessors highlighted the potential for a significant production base at the field, where it is drilling seven wells to determine its extent and productivity.
"The flow of oil from the well has demonstrated that in this area lateral changes in reservoir quality appear less variable than first thought," the company said.
"This increases the likelihood of encountering good quality reservoir and improves the company's confidence in the commercial success of the field."
The Mailisu III field is estimated to contain 2.7 million barrels of oil in-place at the P90 level of confidence, of which only 400,000bbl is estimated to be recoverable.
Caspian estimated that with 20 wells producing between 10-50bopd, the field would have produced 95,000-125,000bbl by the end of 2009.
The three wells drilled to date are near the crest of the mapped structure, while the next three wells in this appraisal plan will test further down the flank, south and west of the initial drilling.
Additional wells will be drilled in the west of the field to confirm the extent of the closure and reservoir development in that area.
Under a farm-in agreement, Caspian has the rights to the shallow potential of some northern Fergana licences, while partner Santos focuses on the deeper potential.
As a result, the Ashvaz block is one of those northern licence areas where Caspian retains 100% rights to any oil down to 1000m.