And that overall energy deficit of almost 9% has commentators worried.

“That’s a huge supply demand gap; it’s pretty much crisis stuff,” one commentator told EnergyReview.Net.

Continuing increasing energy consumption amid falling energy supplies means more energy price increases and the likelihood of LNG imports and-or greater coal use, both domestic and imported. These paint a not-so “green” picture for Hodgson and his renewable energy scenarios.

The chilling figures are contained in the latest edition of the Ministry of Economic Development’s Energy Data File (EDF), a comprehensive biannual volume of energy statistics on energy supply, demand and prices.

The latest EDF shows total primary energy supply, in the year to September 2003, declined by about 1%, due primarily to a 17% drop in gas supply (mainly lower Maui gas production) and a 9% reduction in geothermal supply.

This was partially offset by a 25% hike in coal supply, a 9% increase in imports of oil and oil products, 9% increase in hydro and 5% in wood bioenergy.

Total final energy consumption, however, increased by 7.7%, with coal use (including exports) jumping by 25% and oil consumption increasing by about 7%. This was partially offset by a reduction in gas use for electricity generation (including cogeneration) of about 10% and a 35% reduction in gas use for petrochemical production, primarily Methanex methanol production.

In real terms (March 2003 dollars) the national weighted average electricity price for the year to March 2003 was 10.8 cents a kilowatt-hour, an increase of about 5% on 2002.

Real average residential electricity prices (including goods and services tax) were 4% higher, at 15.5 c/kWh; average commercial electricity prices (excluding GST) were nearly 6% higher, at 10.8 c/kWh; and average industrial electricity prices (excluding GST) were about 8% higher, at 7.2 c/kWh.