Fescharaki said the price of oil was likely to be in the $35-40/bbl range by the end of the second quarter, with seasonal demand declines, "a lot of need for storage and new refinery maintenance" set to force down the prices.
"By the third and fourth quarter it will be somewhere in the range of $50, but we are not going to see the higher prices we have seen for many, many years - for at least a decade, we are [forecast to be] in the $50-80 price range," he said.
"Saudi Arabia's role is critical as they are the only ones who can go up and down [in production], so if they want to reduce the price of oil more then they increase production, if they want to increase the price of oil they reduce production.
"So they have an important balancing role, but they are not prepared to cut production until they see the rest of the world cutting, and with that they would like to see production growth in the US slow down, and the rest of the OPEC countries - including the Iraqis - to participate.
"They will watch to see what other people will do before they take any new action."
Fesharaki found it curious that while "every country in the oil sector has a boss, in the US there is no boss - the private companies make their own decisions".
"So in the US you have all these different players, and it seems to us that at prices of $35-40, the growth in the US production will slow down to maybe only 100,000 barrels per day."
He noted that, so far this year, the growth of US production is about the same as last year - a still-rapid rate which will not slow down soon because it takes about nine months for "people to get out of the existing system" based on the obligations they have.
"The larger consumers are the ones who will benefit most, but Indonesia and India in particular in November 2014 remove all subsidies, and [with those savings] they can use it for infrastructure and other investments," Fesharaki said.
"Malaysia and Thailand have also reduced subsidies, and pretty much everybody else in the Asia Pacific, using the lower oil prices to reorganise and rebalance the energy sector.
"So not only do they pay less but they have also set a course straight for the future."
Regarding policy triggers, Fesharaki said that unlike the price reforms on the oil side of the hydrocarbon market, natural gas price reforms have not been forthcoming.
"The only country that has done such reforms fully has been China. In fact, the Chinese domestic prices are higher than the international market, but many other countries are reluctant to take measures as far as natural gas is concerned because they worry about increasing prices for their electricity sector," he said.
"Prime among them as been India, has been very brave in taking the action on the oil side, but has not really done much as far as their natural gas prices are concerned."
