A wave of LNG carrier new-builds will be required to support what Douglas-Westwood forecasts to be a huge increase in traded base-load LNG volumes from North American activity.
This committed spending will a return to growth in global LNG capex which DW forecasts will total $US284 billion ($A369.87 billion) between 2017 and 2021.
This represents a 50% growth compared over the preceding five-year period globally driven largely by Australia.
This figure is even more staggering considering Australia's boom was only meant to cost $100 billion, but delays and cost blowouts doubled that price, in part because of a refusal to share infrastructure.
RBC Capital Markets said this week it expects PNG LNG operator ExxonMobil and Queensland Curtis LNG owner Shell as having the largest potential amount of oil and gas volumes to be sanctioned - and heavily weighted towards capital-intensive LNG which is "unlikely to be sanctioned in the near-term".
RBC said in its Integrated Oil & Gas analysis of the oil and gas capex of BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Repsol, Shell, Statoil, Total and Galp Energia that while forecasting LNG project timing was "perhaps the most difficult area" to analyse, "we believe the majors will look to position projects to start-up in the 2022-25 timeframe, which therefore means sanctions in 2018-19".
Assuming a conservative timeline on future potential LNG projects such as Mozambique and Lake Charles, RBC believes LNG capex among those oilers will hit a trough in 2018, before slowly accelerating.
Outside of Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone, RBC believes the supermajor's next biggest potential final investment decision, Kitimat LNG that Woodside bought into last year, is being paced.
In fact, RBC believes Kitimat will likely take several more years to reach FID.
Australia's LNG investment boom was driven by growing demand, particularly in Asia, but has played a role in the current glut.
Looking forward, North America's challenge is a mix of low oil prices and an LNG glut expected to last some five years longer.
Like Australia, liquefaction terminals will remain the principal driver of LNG spending over the next five years, constituting $US192 billion, which will boost capacity by 42% by the end of 2021, according to DW's latest analysis.
As the final set of Australian LNG projects start operating next year, global LNG expenditure will be concentrated in North America which will account for 17% of global liquefaction capacity by 2021 - with capex totalling $105 billion, 36% of global spend over that period.
Of the six liquefaction terminals in the US, four of the facilities are currently under construction, with additional trains to be added before the end of the period.
DW believes some export terminals currently in the planning and approval stages will continue to support expenditure.
However, beyond the forecast period DW has taken a conservative view on additional projects, given the current economic climate.
In fact, DW expects many of the early-stage projects not to progress past the initial planning/consent phase.
The compensating news is that LNG demand will continue to grow over the long-term as countries seek to diversify their energy supply.
However, the role of natural gas in these countries' energy mix is being assisted by ongoing issues with nuclear and renewable energy.
DW expects that delays in committing to new nuclear capacity and limitations of renewable technology in base-load applications will support continued new-build of combined-cycle gas power plants.
"This, in addition to declining local production in some key consumer nations, will be a compelling driver for continued investment in these capital intensive projects," DW said.
