Wrong. Very wrong.

Not only did the record oil price of July 2008 precede a worldwide recession, it preceded a dramatic collapse in the oil price.

Between the record high and Christmas of 2008, the price of Brent crude crumbled to around $US37, a fall of 75% in six months.

History will not repeat itself exactly in 2012, but with memories of the 2008 boom and bust still fresh in everyone's mind there is a sense of foreboding that oil is about to stop the embryonic economic recovery in its tracks.

Analysts at the International Energy Agency spelled out the dangers that lie ahead in a paper delivered in London on Friday, including a reminder that every recession since the second world war was preceded by an oil-price spike.

On a more human level, oil at its current level of $US125/bbl, is producing the sort of pain at the pump which is attracting widespread television coverage. In Britain, it now costs £100 to fill the tank of a family car. In the US the price has reached $US100 a tank.

What that translates into is either consumers thinking twice about driving or, more likely, consumers putting off purchases of other goods and services. Aviation, for example is being hard hit by soaring avgas bills.

The reasons for the current oil-price spike might be different to that of 2008. This time around it is a combination of the recovery triggering higher demand, just as the rattling of sabres in the Persian Gulf grows louder thanks to the stand-off between the western world and Iran.

No-one needs a refresher course in Middle East politics, but it is worth looking back at the oil shocks of the 1970s which produced precisely the sort of global recession that we seem to be heading into today - if, in fact, we ever climbed out of the 2008 recession.

From The Slug's perspective the question is not so much whether the world slides into a double-dip (or is it a triple-dip) recession, but whether the collapse in global confidence also triggers a collapse in the oil price as it did in 2008.

That outcome is unlikely, but it is a possibility that everyone in the oil business ought to consider because while oil is the ultimate cyclical commodity with extreme highs and lows, it is also the commodity with the least transparency.

No-one, for example, really knows how much oil has been stockpiled by speculators ahead of a possible show-down with Iran, and no-one knows whether Saudi Arabia can deliver on its oft-repeated promise of boosting oil production to make up the Iran-induced shortfall.

That's why it would be wise to adopt the standard defensive strategy of hoping for the best, and planning for the worst, a process reinforced by what the IEA said on Friday, but also because the IEA itself is really a bit confused about the outlook, as these two examples show.

In the Indian capital of New Delhi, IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven told Reuters newsagency on the sidelines of a gas conference early on Friday that she could not see any disruption to the oil market.

"There is no fear of disruption to supplies and you know Saudi Arabia is going to bring more oil to the market," said the IEA head, who is also a former Minister for Economic Affairs in the Dutch government.

A few hours later, IEA chief economist Fatih Birol dropped his bombshell in London with a series of dire economic comparisons which, while not directly contradicting his boss, painted a much darker picture.

According to London's Financial Times newspaper, Dr Birol, pointed out the European Union would spend 2.8% of its gross domestic product on oil this year compared to a long-run average of 1.7% thanks to the rising oil price and the falling Euro currency.

In human terms, that means the average European household will spend 11% of its budget on heating, lighting, cooking and personal transport versus a historical average of 6-7% and 9% last year.

The killer quote and why that precipitous 75% fall in the oil price in 2008 keeps flashing in front of The Slug come from Dr Birol.

He said: "The current [oil] price levels are on average higher than that awful year of 2008, and as such, have the capacity to tip the global economy back into recession."

Sobering stuff - and a reason to watch the oil price more closely than ever.