Range, for anyone not following what’s happening at the bottom of the market, has risen from around 2.6c in early October to recent trades around 5.3c.
The numbers seem small, but for the punters who paid between 2.6c and 3c when buying the 109 million Range shares traded on October 6 (a number equivalent to no less than 23.6% of Range’s total issued capital) the difference between 2.6c and 5.3c represents a theoretical profit of close to $3 million.
It’s the dollars involved, coupled with the massive volumes of trade, and the curious nature of Range’s adventures in Africa which have caught The Slug’s eye.
First sign that something interesting was happening at Range came in early October when the company, better known as a mineral explorer, stunned the market by announcing that it had negotiated exclusive rights to explore the oil and gas potential of north-east Somalia, a place known as Puntland.
When The Slug’s attention was drawn to the announcement he thought perhaps he was dealing with a spelling error. Other observers, especially those with some knowledge of Somalia, said they knew all about Puntland. Rather than query the name of the joint, they queried the wisdom of the government authorities granting exclusive rights to Range, and its partner, an outfit called Consort Private.
Management at Range, naturally, says it is on a winner. Puntland is, according to their studies, one of Africa’s best locations for oil and gas exploration.
A spokesman even told EnergyReview.net last week everything about the Puntland deal was above board, adding these words: “There is no question of sovereign risk.”
The Slug understands that this remark was directed mainly at the issue of having clear title to the land, and being able to deal with the government. On those scores there is no reason to doubt Range.
Sovereign risk, however, is a much wider subject than being happy with the piece of paper you have from a government and there are reasons for believing that Somalia may not be a safe place to operate.
As anyone doing business in Africa can tell you it’s often a case of simply staying alive – something that several people in Somalia failed to do last week when guarding the nation’s nominal leader in the country’s capital, Mogadishu.
The brouhaha in Mogadishu – a few grenades, a landmine and a bit of machine gun fire – involved an attempt on the life of the prime minister, Mohamed Gedi, the same person who signed the deal with Range. Gedi has now survived several assassination attempts.
The attack on the prime minister followed an assault by Somali pirates on a cruise ship off the Puntland coast a couple of day earlier.
While the 'The Pirates of Puntland' may sound like a comic opera, human resources managers may find their recruitment work anything but amusing in this sort of environment.
Reading up on Range, Somalia and Puntland gave The Slug a strange feeling of deja vu, a sensation that he had seen or heard something like this before. The place wasn’t called Puntland, but the general theme was the same.
It stretched Slug’s little grey cells but he finally nailed the question, and it’s all to do with an old Peter Sellers movie called The Mouse That Roared.
Way back in 1959 Sellers starred in a film about a mythical country called the Duchy of Grand Fenwick. It was in such terrible economic trouble that it declared war on the US, hoping to lose and then to be rescued by US aid.
Unfortunately for Grand Fenwick, it won the war, and was then faced with the dilemma of being a victor with the burden of having to run the US.
Puntland is perhaps not as quaint as Grand Fenwick, but it’s hard to avoid thinking that we’re dealing with a country almost no one has jheard of that is run by people who take an interesting and direct approach to business and politics.
Perhaps Puntland will prove to be a winner, just like Grand Fenwick. Perhaps Range will explore merrily, unmolested by the locals, and make a terrific discovery. Perhaps the warlords and their armed gangs will see the errors of their ways, there will be no more assassination attempts, the pirates will park their boats and find gainful employment, and everyone will live happily ever after.
To which The Slug says: best of luck to Puntland, and all who bet their fortunes on her!