"To support continued stable energy supplies to Australia's friends and allies in the region, Inpex is aiming to increase Ichthys LNG production capacity to 9.3 million t/y this year," following debottlenecking of the existing facility, Bill Townsend, Inpex senior vice president corporate, told Energy News.

"We also have ambitions to expand the Ichthys LNG onshore production facilities in Darwin by around 2030," he added.

This echoes comments by Takayuki Ueda, Inpex CEO, at the Gastech conference in Singapore last September. He said the company is considering adding a third train "around 2030". However, he noted that would require new reserves being discovered, sourced, or acquired.

Inpex and JV partner TotalEnergies' recent acquisition of Cash-Maple from PTTEP will help keep the current two trains full until the late 2030s, Krishan Pal Birda, senior analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy, told Energy News.

Townsend said the acquisition will directly support Ichthys LNG long-term production volume - and continued security of supply for its customers.

Meanwhile, this month Inpex announced it will boost its stake in Ichthys LNG. Inpex said it will exercise its pre-emptive rights to buy Tokyo Gas' share of the Ichthys LNG project in northern Australia, edging out MidOcean.

Pursuing a new LNG train

In an investor presentation in late November, Inpex highlighted it was evaluating a third train expansion and said it was targeting start-up in the 2030s.

Birda added that "Inpex, in its pursuit of a new train, is exploring avenues of both organic and inorganic growth to underpin the expansion. Organically, the company is currently drilling an exploration well, Holonema in WA-285-P, in the nearby acreage, with plans for another well, Bassett Deep in WA-343-P, in the coming year.

Inpex holds varying stakes in exploration and retention leases near the Ichthys LNG project, housing gas discoveries like Mimia, Burnside, Crown, and Lasseter. Inpex is the operator for Mimia with TotalEnergies, as the joint venture partner. Meanwhile, it's a non-operating joint venture partner with Santos in Burnside, Crown, and Lasseter, where any acquisitions to align the ownership structure with the Ichthys LNG project could potentially help speed up the developments."

Eugene Chiam, a senior analyst, at Welligence Energy Analytics told Energy News, that presuming a third LNG train would be similar sized to the project's first two, Ichthys LNG output would be increased by 50%, to close to 14 million t/y.

To do this, the project partners would likely need additional feedgas to supply the third train, over and above the Ichthys and Cash Maple fields, said Chiam. "Sizeable, currently undeveloped, gas resources, relatively nearby to Ichthys' offshore infrastructure include Poseidon, Echuca Shoals and Crux. However, Inpex does not operate any of these three fields, complicating efforts to tie them into an Ichthys train three," he added.

"A third train at Ichthys could start up around 2030, given it would be a brownfield liquefaction plant expansion and, for feed gas, it would likely tie-in sizeable already discovered gas resources, that are currently undeveloped, located relatively nearby Ichthys' existing offshore infrastructure," he said.

Robert Chambers, an APAC-focused upstream energy expert, told Energy News, that it was unlikely that the current 890km pipeline, which transports gas from the Ichthys field to the LNG plant, could support the 50% extra capacity required for a third liquefaction train.

Therefore, any future tie-backs to the Ichthys field facility will be to maintain production at the existing two trains rather than underpin a third train, he said.

"Cash-Maple is one such potential tie-back to the Ichthys facilities. I see the recent acquisition from PTTEP, as a pragmatic move, rather than a firm indication that it will be the first backfill to Ichthys. The distance from Cash-Maple to Ichthys (250km) means that this will be an expensive development and it is likely that Inpex would prioritise the development of closer prospects, provided they mature into discoveries of sufficient size. Cash-Maple therefore provides a nice hedge if the exploration prospects don't materialise," added Chambers.

In terms of potential feedstock for a third train, it would be more logical to look at gas resources closer to Darwin. Chambers said there "are a number of ‘stranded' gas discoveries within a reasonable proximity for the Ichthys LNG plant that could support a third train. However, these could also support a second train at Darwin LNG or a new LNG plant.

There are existing fields offshore, and located in the Bonaparte basin. The largest of these is Evans Shoal, but would require CCUS to be applied given the 28% CO2 content. There are also fields, once proposed to support Bonaparte FLNG, namely Petrel, Tern, and Frigate. Inpex would likely have to acquire an operated stake to get any of these fields to development, but they have shown willingness to look at CCUS (note their Abadi plans in Indonesia). If Inpex wanted to act quickly here, then a start date of 2030 could be achieved, but it is a big if."

One potential new source of supply would be the immature, but emerging, Beetaloo and McArthur basins, that have been touted to have significant unconventional gas potential, offered Chambers. "Tamboran Resources, who hold a number of Beetaloo permits have already started to outline plans for a dedicated Northern Territory LNG (NTLNG) plant with a capacity of 6.6 million t/y. Inpex could either take a stake in the upstream assets to help fund development or simply apply a merchant model. Tamboran resources have talked about the potential to get NTLNG onstream by 2030, but this still seems a stretch until the subsurface potential is better understood."

Rising risk in Australia?

Operating as an oil and gas player in Australia is becoming challenging, but we do not see it as a sovereign risk, said Birda, referring to the recent lawfare supported by anti-fossil fuel activists that has slowed upstream project developments.

"Despite the regulatory interventions of the past year, we believe Japan and Australia will both work to find common ground not only in the LNG trade, but also in future energy sources," added Birda.

Perhaps the bigger risk for a third train at Ichthys is sufficient investment capital. As Chiam pointed out, by the early 2030's Inpex is planning to develop the large greenfield Abadi project in Indonesia, as well as implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities for Ichthys. "Given both these proposed projects will likely entail significant cost, a third train at Ichthys may have to compete for capital in Inpex's portfolio."

The Ichthys project is owned by Inpex on 66.245%, TotalEnergies on 26% and the Australian subsidiaries of Taiwan's CPC Corporation on 2.625%, Tokyo Gas on 1.575%, Osaka Gas on 1.2%, Kansai Electric Power on 1.2%, JERA on 0.735% and Toho Gas on 0.42%.