MARKETS

Pressure to remain on oil market: APPEC 2022

Russia fallout unknown at this stage

Pressure to remain on oil market: APPEC 2022

However, if Russia lowers output in a reaction to price caps imposed by the West, the cartel will not need to. 

The general consensus is that oil prices will fall next year, amid weakening demand and a strong US dollar, which has prompted speculation that OPEC will have to reduce production to stabilise prices. 

Trading house Traqfigura expects downward pressure on oil prices will continue in both the short and midterm while fears of a potential recession continue. 

Traqfigura chief economist said on Tuesday macro factors would push oil prices down due to "dislocations" in the market which was allowing traders to add to their market share. 

S&P Global expects Brent to remain at around US$80 a barrel into next year. It is currently worth around US$85/bbl against the backdrop of a 15-month high in the US dollar. 

Whether or not OPEC will cut output to keep oil prices buoyant remains to be seen, however, one key factor that will potentially sway the organisation in their decision will be how Russia reacts to a G7-imposed ban on its oil and its price cap on Russian crude. 

The details of the cap are yet to be announced, however Russian oil is increasingly being sent to Asia, a far greater distance than traditional markets in Europe. 

Traders noted that Europe accounted for 2 million barrels of crude oil imports from Russia. 

Whether Russia's government accepts a price cap is unknown. To date, the rhetoric coming from the Kremlin has revolved around cutting ties with any country prepared to impose the cap. 

If Russian president Vladimir Putin shuts in production, even temporarily, in protest of the cap, OPEC will not need to cut output. 

 

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.

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