The CPD is an independent public policy think tank formed in 2007 by policy analyst Miriam Lyons and John Menadue, who worked as secretary for the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet under the Whitlam and Fraser governments.

The report, Who's Buying, released today, modelled the impact of locked in and likely 2050 decarbonisation commitments by export partners onto Australian output and employment at a local government level. The report does not consider domestic energy policy, only to industries that rely on the international export market. 

The findings see around 100,000 to 300,000 jobs exposed, or 2% of the national workforce,  specifically in areas such as Queensland's Bowen Basin, the Hunter region in New South Wales and the Pilbara in Western Australia.

These regions rely heavily on coal, oil and gas exports for work, with the impacts depending on the pace of global decarbonisation. 

Around A$50 billion of output per year in 2020 dollars, is dependent upon global demand that will be gone by 2050, according to the report. 

The modelling included the knock-on effect to jobs in areas such as finance, maintenance and hospitality, with the report noting the effects will be highly concentrated and would place some communities at great risk unless long-term plans are made now. 

"A transition to net zero will not be a catastrophe and Australia has plenty of time to prepare," the report said. 

Centre for Policy Development director Toby Phillips said Australian policymakers needed to act now to build new industries to help these workforces transition as fossil fuel demand wanes. 

"Global decarbonisation has already started, and it is accelerating," he said.

"Our export partners have been very clear through their words and actions that they will be changing the way they make energy and what they buy to do it. 

"The choices we make today will determine our ability to benefit from the opportunities presented by decarbonisation in areas like mining, hydrogen, manufacturing, services and transport." 

The report said increasing certainty that Australia's trading partners will decarbonise provide government and industry time to prepare, saying renewable energy investment in the Hunter Valley and Central Queensland could replace half - or more - of the jobs affected by falling fossil fuel export demand .

New export opportunities listed included batteries and battery raw materials, hydrogen, low emissions steel, alumina and aluminium and clean energy professional services. 

The CPD pointed to findings by the Business Council of Australia which found 395,000 jobs could be created across ten key carbon exposed regions in Australia.

The report estimates that clean energy jobs could fully absorb the exposed jobs in these  regions, with the exception of Central Queensland, the Hunter Valley, Newcastle and Perth. 

"New industries are emerging that will replace jobs lost in fossil fuel industries but targeted industry and workforce transition planning, including skill matching and training, will be required to ensure that regions and workers most impacted by decarbonisation are best positioned to benefit from opportunities." CPD economist and wellbeing lead Warwick Smith said. 

The full report is available here.