Speaking at an online presentation from Norway, he said his consultancy had calculated with current pledges from the COP26 Glasgow summit the world is on track to only warm by 1.6C by 2050 to 2056. This is 0.4% below the Paris 2C agreement of 2015 but still 0.1% above the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommendation, made in 2018.
Rystad's previous forecast was warming of 1.8C.
His live presentation outlined research released the day before.
Solar installations are set to reach 1.2 terrawatts early next decade, wind turbine installation is tracking at 60 gigawatts per year, but this could double every four years and would lead to 350 gigwatts of capacity in the same period.
It does not offer the same data for battery cell capacity, but said it "could also grow sufficiently to provide backup for the intermittency of solar and wind generation".
Gas will have a seat at the table for longer than other fossil fuels as it replaces coal and also backs up renewables, until batteries and other storage solutions take over. However, "longer term it is outcompeted by electricity" he said.
However, the molecule won't simply be replacing electrons but also the other molecule, hydrogen.
"Renewable power generation is already economically competitive in most places, and the COP26 agreement to phase out subsidies in support of fossil fuels will further strengthen the competitiveness of renewables and hence the speed of deployment," he said.
Policy roadblocks and supply chain issues may hinder this.
Overall fossil fuel demand will fall 25 exajoules from now to 2030, to 60EJ with corresponding emissions from power generation moving from 17 gigatonnes to 11.5Gt in 2030 and 4.5Gt in 2040.
Electricity demand will expand into building, industry and transport replacing traditional energy carriers coal, oil and gas.
"The commitments by global leaders to cut methane emissions and reduce deforestation, alongside faster than expected solar PV manufacturing capacity additions and EV penetration, could be a recipe for limiting the temperature rise to 1.6C versus pre-industrial levels," he said.
Efficiency and lower costs will drive uptake of renewables, driving fossil fuels out of the market, with Rystad suggesting the key to a balanced transition is one that increases demand before restricting supply even as policy support for cleaner energy remains strong.
The commitment to stop deforestation by 141 countries was another commitment he noted, though it was outside the energy consultancy's wheelhouse.
"Deforestation currently contributes around 5 Gt of emissions per year, or 0.1°C of global warming over a 45-year period."
