This week offered some hints of a potential oil-free future, at least for transport, with the release of Tesla's latest, cheaper Model 3, intended as a mid-range and mass produced EV, unlike the previous low-volume Model S and X.

 

Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that vehicles like the Model 3 will outsell their petroleum-driven equivalents within two decades; while Volvo recently announced plans to abandon the combustion engine altogether.

 

The UK government this week also joined Norway and France in saying it would ban fossil fuel care sales in coming decades, restricting sales of all new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040.

 

NAB said that while the Model 3 still represented EVs at their infancy, and 2040 was still 23 years away, "there may be an emerging structural weakness in oil demand over the coming years" should the technologies prove popular.

 

"Nonetheless, we still expect almost all vehicles to be petrol or diesel-fuelled for some years," the bank added.

 

Bloomberg reported this week that the EV revolution was shaking up the world's biggest metals markets, with diversified miners such as Glencore to benefit the most from a move to EVs which need more cobalt, lithium, copper, aluminium and nickel.

 

"For some of the metals, it's a complete game changer," Bloomberg quoted Capital Economics' London-based commodities economist Simona Gambarini as saying. 

 

"We've already seen a big impact on some metals like cobalt and lithium, which have soared over the past couple of years."

 

Yet Wood Mackenzie's Perth-based Australasian oil and gas lead analyst, Saul Kavonic, immediately poured cold water over that hype, replying to Bloomberg's Tweet with his own riposte: "EVs: at what human and environmental cost? Most cobalt comes from the DRC [Democratic Republic of Congo] where it funds child labour, conflict…"

 

Kavonic told Energy News that while EVs may provide an alternative to oil-driven transport, "they are not all puppies and rainbows either". 

 

"EVs are drastically increasing demand for minerals predominantly mined in areas with links to conflict mining, child labour, human rights violations and practises that lead to degradation of old forests," he said. 

 

"These mining practices can often be less regulated and run at far lower safety and ethical standards than major oil company operations."

 

Amnesty International warned last month that child labourers must not pay the price for the UK's shift to electric vehicles.

 

Amnesty business and human rights researcher Mark Dummett said the UK's move may be good news for the environment and air quality, but "drivers should be aware that while electric cars may be green, they're not always clean".

 

Amnesty's research shows that there is a significant risk of cobalt mined by children and adults in "appalling conditions" in the DRC ending up in the batteries of EVs.

 

"Workers in the DRC, earning as little as one dollar a day and at risk of fatal accidents and illness, must not pay the price for the UK's shift to electric cars," Dummett said.

 

"Drivers will want to know that their new cars are not linked to the suffering of child labourers in the DRC, but there is a worrying lack of transparency across the car manufacturing industry, with many leading names failing to disclose information about their cobalt supply chains.

 

"With car makers in the spotlight today, we are calling on them to make public the steps they are taking to ensure that their supply chains are not tainted by human rights abuses, so that consumers' minds can be put at rest."

 

While the DRC is the world's largest source of cobalt today, increasing demand and promising exploration for cobalt and lithium means Australia could eventually rise as a major player in the EV market, providing a well-regulated alternative in the same way the world has addressed blood diamonds and other conflict metals with supply chain management.