New CEO Frank Calabria told analysts yesterday he had no intention of selling the so-called NewCo's individual assets, but was open to good enough offers for the whole business.
"We're focused on the IPO as a whole package," Calabria said.
"Clearly we won't ignore if there are good offers that come in; we will consider them seriously."
Origin's portfolio manager Suhas Nayak said it was "always healthy to have a bit of competitive tension" amid speculation Beach Energy and others eyeing the tight east coast gas market could be running the ruler over NewCo.
While Origin didn't give any updates on timing of the IPO, RBC Capital Markets expects it would likely be in the second half of the year.
"We would like to see the Beetaloo asset included in NewCo to add some longer-dated assets and provide some growth options for NewCo," RBC's Sydney-based analyst Ben Wilson said.
"We note Newco's declining production base after FY18 with few internal resource options other than Perth Basin."
The 6.6 trillion cubic feet Beetaloo Sub-basin shale gas discovery is being kept in the parent company, along with the Australia Pacific LNG development.
The Amungee NW-1H well in the Northern Territory is believed to be of sufficient size to support a train at Australia Pacific LNG or at the closer ConocoPhillips-operated Darwin LNG, which is looking for fresh backfill.
Wilson said his firm continued to like Origin compared to its peers as it had weathered the debt storm through a combination of self-help and a large equity raising in 2015-16.
He said Origin now had a line of sight on investment-grade credit metrics, and believed Origin's net debt will be well below $9 billion by the end of 2016-17 pending sales of assets in the Darling Downs and Stockyard Hill areas and the NewCo spin-out.
Wilson also noted that initial capital spending requirements on the building of APLNG are also coming to an end, allowing the LNG plant to become cashflow positive.
"The Energy Markets business is performing well with strong margins and APLNG is ramping up as planned and heading towards positive free cash flow," Wilson said.
"While we concede a share price in the mid $7s is becoming more challenging, we see a strong case for continuing outperformance versus peers Santos and AGL Energy.
"We note Origin has outperformed Santos by 18% since immediately prior to the watershed OPEC meeting in November. It has also shaded AGL by 3% over the same period."
Origin's guidance for 2016-17 so far, and the significant detail given on the operating cost and revenue structure of APLNG, suggested a notably higher level of earnings visibility over the next two years than previously, he said.
