MARKETS

Total back on the offensive

TOTAL copped a sizable hit in the fourth quarter mainly due to the “inventory effect” and impairments on Gladstone LNG and two other projects, indicating it believes it will see lower gas prices for coming years. 

Patrick Pouyanne

Patrick Pouyanne

The French oiler announced $2.091 billion ($A2.62 billion) worth of adjustments affecting net income for 2016, $1.9 billion  of which were booked in the December quarter, yet Total still managed total net income of $6.2 billion for the year, up 22% from 2015.
 
The company said the hit was "mainly due to the inventory effect and impairments on Gladstone LNG in Australia, Angola LNG, and Laggan-Tormore in the UK, reflecting the decrease in gas price assumptions for the coming years".
 
The Chevron Corporation-operated Angola LNG, in which Total has a 13.6% stake, returned to the market last June having unexpectedly shut down in April 2014.
 
Total also has a 27.5% stake the Santos-operated $18.5 billion GLNG, which started up its second train last May, but the Adelaide-based oiler announced a $1.5 billion writedown on the project last August.
 
Overall Total is back on the front foot, saying it could sanction up to 10 projects in the next 18 months, including the $2 billion South Pars gas project in Iran which the company said could be approved as soon as mid-2017.
 
"After two years of being defensive, we are offensive now," Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne said as the French oiler lifted its full-year dividend to €2.45/share.
 
Total increased its2016 oil and gas production by 4.5% year-on-year to 2.45 million barrels of oil equivalent per day after a 14% increase in 2015.
 
The company re-iterated its plan to boost output by 5% a year between 2014 and 2020.
 
Total's cost control efforts are also paying off, with the company saying it should be able to fund operations and the cash part of its dividend at an oil price about $US50/bbl, $5 lower than both its September estimate and around today's Brent price.
 
Brent continued its climb overnight after an initial slump after data showed US crude inventories rose for the fifth straight week, delivering what futures brokerage Oanda called a "Goliath" crude inventory build, 14.2MMbbl in the week to February 3, the second-highest on record.
 
Pouyanne said Total's demonstrated resilience through the downturn had positioned it to hit the ground running amid the current environment of increased optimism, having generated $8.3 billion adjusted net income.
 
Total's integrated model and commitment to reduce breakeven costs gave it the highest profitability among the majors, he said.
 
The company had an eye for growth, even during the problematic 2016, entering Qatar's Al Shaheen field and acquiring US shale gas assets, signing major deals in Brazil with Petrobras and in Uganda and Iran.
 
Pouyanne said that investment hinges on decisions made by US President Donald Trump, who needs to approve the continues suspension of sanctions against Iran. 
 
Pouyanne insisted that last November's decision to proceed with the Iran project was a "win-win" deal, and that the oiler had some guarantees in place that protects it financially if the project does not go through.
 
New US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, former CEO of ExxonMobil, has called for a full review of the Iran nuclear agreement.
 
Still, Pouyane said that based on the deal that was inked, the US government would have to prove that Iran had breached its agreements for Trump's administration to decide not to renew the waivers.
 
"So, either the waivers are renewed and as such, respect the Iran nuclear deal, which will allow us to execute the contract and we'll do so, or they decide to tear up the Iran nuclear agreement," Pouyanne said.
 
"In that case, we'll not be able to work in Iran."
 
Total also renewed its reserves with a replacement of 136% and had two promising exploration results with major discoveries in the US (North Platte) and Nigeria (Owowo).

 

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