LNG (LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS)

LNG: the long boom

REMEMBER the theory about the narrow window of opportunity for bringing on liquefied natural gas ...

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You know, the need to develop projects before somewhere between 2012 and 2015 because after that date the current seller's market in LNG would shift in favour of buyers?

Remember?

Good. Now forget it, because it's all wrong, according to some recent reports.

Numerous analysts and many executives, notably Woodside CEO Don Voelte, have been telling us about the 2012-2015 window. But last week Voelte told an investors conference that supply in the LNG market could stay tight beyond 2015 as demand is still rising and liquefaction projects are being delayed.

The market is buoyant, long-term LNG contract prices are approaching the crude oil equivalent and the introduction of a price on carbon could push LNG prices beyond crude, Voelte said.

Brisbane-based WilsonHTM analyst Andrew Pedlar says there are good reasons for believing that LNG will remain a seller's market for years to come.

In a March commodity review, he said the ratio of LNG regasification to liquefaction capacity would grow rapidly over the next five years, leading to an increasing shift of power to LNG producers.

According to figures compiled by Platts LNG Daily, by the end of 2008 worldwide liquefaction capacity will be 191.5 million tonnes per annum, but regasification capacity will be 337.8MMtpa.

By the end of 2013, liquefaction capacity will increase by about 60% to reach 315.9MMtpa, but regasification capacity will more than triple to 1018.6MMtpa.

This means the ratio of regasification to liquefaction facilities will increase from 2008's 1.76:1 to 3.22:1.

Pedler notes that not all planned regasification or liquefaction facilities will be built but says the trend is clear.

"Demand for LNG seems set to increase dramatically," he said.

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