“The outlook for Australia’s commodities sector is being driven by minerals and energy exports,” said Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) executive director, Dr Brian Fisher.
Exports of crude oil are expected to rise 43% to $2.7 billion on the basis of higher oil prices and higher export volumes.
ABARE said LNG would also experience a similar increase of 49% to $1.6 billion on the back of higher output from the North West Shelf’s fourth LNG train and the commissioning of a new LNG plant in Darwin.
Major Western Australian fields ramping up production in the second half of 2005/06 would account for most of the oil production growth, said Fisher.
“With close proximity to Asian markets, it is assumed that additional production from Mutineer/Exeter and Cliff Head will be exported, while production from Basker and Manter (Gippsland Basin) is assumed to be consumed domestically,” he said.
The report also said that while Hurricane Katrina had disrupted US oil production and petroleum refining, these disruptions were temporary and were unlikely to significantly affect annual 2005/06 commodity outcomes.
ABARE is tipping the world trade weighted average price of oil to fall from the current US$63 a barrel to just under $52 a barrel.
It also said demand from China was likely to jump 4% this calendar year and another 4% in 2006 to almost seven million barrels a day.
In contrast, consumption in the OECD was expected to increase 0.8% to 50.4 million barrels a day.
