However, any wholesale switch to solid fuels such as coal could be more damaging to this country's small natural gas sector, they warn.

"It is erroneous thinking to believe LNG and indigenous gas will co-exist quite comfortably. You will see the development of a two-tier gas pricing system market, to the possible detriment of both," one commentator told EnergyReview.Net recently.

He said the price of onshore gas was likely to rise to $NZ5-6 per Gigajoule whereas LNG, which was loosely linked to the world crude oil price, could go to $NZ6.50-8.00.

"It's becoming a buyer's market."

Another commentator said any swing away from gas to solid fuel, coal - because of this country's looming gas shortage - could be even more damaging.

Big energy users, like forestry company Carter Holt Harvey and diary giant Fonterra, would start to look for alternatives to gas. "It will become even less sexy to use gas; increased coal use could become a major turn-off for natural gas."

The first commentator said New Zealand's fragile gas position could easily worsen from this year if petroleum explorers and developers did not strike the right balance.

"We have seen ConocoPhillips walk away, Shell virtually walk away and Santos looking but, in the end, also walking from any involvement in New Zealand.

"If we do happen to find something big out there, in deep water off Taranaki, who will develop it? It will either be left or turned into LNG for export.

"What we desperately need to find is several pockets of near-shore or onshore gas, each containing several hundred tcf, in the next few years, and preferably in Taranaki as that is where the infrastructure is."

Maui has produced about 160-180 bcf a year, though Pohokura is scheduled to produce only 60-80 bcf a year from mid-2006 for perhaps a decade, leaving a "gap" to be filled by the development of such fields as Kupe.

Both men said New Zealand's almost perilous gas position - where demand could start exceeding supply - might happen as early as 2005-06 if Methanex managed to run its methanol plants operating at only partial capacity.

Therefore, the situation was too serious for any petty politics to delay the development of the Pohokura and Kupe fields.

This country's two biggest gas users, Contact Energy and Genesis Power, are later this month due to announce the successful tendered for an LNG feasibility study for New Zealand.