But public affairs manager Gerry Kennedy said there was yet a glimmer of hope that Methanex would not be packing its bags for overseas next year. Methanex’ main low-cost production hubs are in Trinidad and Chile, with its headquarters in Vancouver.

“We have closed the valley plant several times since effectively losing two years’ gas supply in early 2003. The plant has always reopened when we have secured more gas and that might still be the case," Kennedy said.

“We will have a clearer picture regarding reasonably priced gas for the valley before the end of this year.”

All remaining 80 or so staff – down from the 200-plus employed when the giant twin-train Methanol complex was operating at full capacity – would be kept on at the nearby valley plant until at least next March.

“There is an awful lot of maintenance work to be done and when this thing has happened before we have kept everybody fully employed,” she said.

Forecast 2005 methanol production from the valley plant was 400,000 tonnes and the plant had so far produced 345,000 tonnes – “so we still might make it if the valley opens again before the close of 2005,” she said.

Kennedy would not be drawn on what options were left for Methanex in New Zealand. But it was possible the corporation could again cobble together sufficient gas from several producers to keep the valley plant as a “swing producer” for 2006 and perhaps beyond.

However, it was a different story for Motunui, which Methanex mothballed last December primarily because of a lack of gas. Only a Maui-sized discovery within the next three years offered any hope of restarting that plant.

Methanex NZ has used various mixes of Maui, McKee, Mangahewa, Kapuni and Radnor gases since the Maui redetermination of early 2003 effectively cut the company’s Maui gas entitlement by about 140 petajoules (or two years’ supply to Motunui).

Other potential gas supplies include more Radnor gas from the further wells Bridge Petroleum and Westech Energy plan, although Radnor-1 is watering out; Cardiff gas, but Genesis Energy has pre-emptive rights to that; or perhaps gas from Greymouth Petroleum’s untested Turangi-1 well or other small onshore Taranaki gas finds such as Austral Pacific Energy/Tap Oil/Tag Oil’s Supplejack.