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An independent review of block prepared by Gaffney, Cline & Associates estimated that the three leads defined by Pilot so far have the potential for up to 3.6 billion barrels on the Exmouth Plateau.
The work covers the same Dalia Updip, Beta and Gamma leads that have been previously assessed to carry the potential for trillions of cubic feet of gas.
GCA determined that the leads are more likely to be gas bearing, with a 30% probability of oil versus a 70% probability of gas. The geological chance of success of the three prospects is between 16-18%.
If oil is found in Dalia Updip it could be anywhere between 250 million barrels and 1.7Bbbl with a best potential for 764MMbbl.
Beta could host between 151-931MMbbl with a best estimate of 381MMbbl and Gamma could host between 203-926MMbbl with a best 436MMbbl.
Pilot says that regional well data and various studies support the case for an oil play within Exmouth Plateau, with the Triassic Mungaroo source/reservoir interval having been deposited in an outboard, marine depositional environment over WA-507-P.
The marine environment has positive implications for extensive deposition of oil-prone source rocks and good quality sandstone reservoirs.
Historically the primary target of outer North West Shelf exploration has been for gas, with a high success rate largely based on drilling prospects that exhibit direct hydrocarbon indicators on seismic data.
DHIs tend not as obvious for oil targets, resulting in a large number of structures that remain undrilled, but which may be oil bearing.
This has not gone unnoticed by the likes of Shell, Statoil and Eni-Octanex, which are pursuing the oil play in their own permits surrounding WA-507-P.
"GCA's findings clearly confirm the potential for the very large and previously quantified exploration leads within WA-507-P to be oil bearing," Pilot managing director Iain Smith said.
Pilot plans to work up the permit for a farm-out.
The permit is considered to be highly prospective for gas in the Mungaroo Formation, and a discovery would probably be developed with FLNG.
GCA previously estimated the Dalia Updip prospect as having potential for 4.7Tcf (best case).
A well, Dalia South-1, was drilled by Woodside Petroleum in 2010 using the Maersk Discoverer drillship, but was dry.
Pilot now says it is clear the prospect was drilled some 300m off-structure.
The block contains three prospects with best case prospective gas resources of 10 trillion cubic feet.
WA-507-P is covered with 3D data that Pilot has licenced for a minimal up-front payment and a fairly "creative commercial agreement" with milestone payments due to the seismic licensee based on progressing the project through farm-out and drilling.
Licencing the data largely fulfilled the primary work program, and there are no drilling requirements.
Pilot's shares doubled yesterday to $0.002.