The Global Energy Studies group said that OPEC production cuts and declines in Iraqi oil exports will see the oil market experience a period of rising prices. However, the GES cautioned the oil price "rollercoaster" of the last few years is unlikely to go away. It said cheating by OPEC members and a further slowdown of the US economy could quite easily send oil prices south.

Speaking of cheating, the latest report from the Middle East Economic Survey said most members of the OPEC cartel are producing over the quota. Production by 10 countries was 22.81 million barrels per day, which represents an excess of 1.1 mmbpd over the ceiling agreed to by OPEC in Cairo late last year.