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EVs no threat to petroleum addiction

THE world needs to stop selling cars running on petroleum within the next two decades to meet its COP21 goals according to the Climate Action Tracker, just as Shell and car maker GM are helping reduce fuel demand.

EVs no threat to petroleum addiction

CAT, which is funded by three European research groups, warns it will be impossible to prevent global temperatures from rising 2C above pre-industrial levels with a continued reliance of gas-guzzlers.

Old bangers and swish sport scars chew through around 25% of the world's oil stocks each day, spewing a combined 14% of world greenhouse gas emissions, and if all road, water, rail and air traffic for than half the oil pumped out of the ground is used to get people and things from A to B.

While CAT assumes the last fossil fuel vehicles will be on the roads until 2050, it says there are plenty of alternatives being developed in the market for personal use, from auto makers such as General Motors to Tesla, and hydrogen-powered such as the Toyota Mirai.

However, a major hurdle preventing mass EV adoption is price, which has kept projections of electric vehicles in the total European Union, Chinese and US fleets by 2030 to between 5-10%, although oilers are looking at alternative fuels including gas-powered vehicles and LNG-fuelled tankers that could change those figures.

BHP Billiton vice president of market analysis Huw McKay wrote on the company's new blog recently that by 2035 his company thinks 8% of cars on the road will be electric vehicles, and that estimate is unlikely to improve until the costs of battery storage comes down.

BHP is not alone.

Last year, OPEC predicted that just 6% of cars on the world's roads in 2040 would be powered by anything other than gasoline or diesel, while ExxonMobil made a similar prediction, saying electric cars could account for less than 10% of global new-car sales in the same year.

It costs around $US15,000 ($A19,600) for the battery pack of a mid-size car to deliver the range expected by a typical American consumer compared with the average price of a Toyota Camry, the best-selling US light passenger vehicle, at around $25,000.

BHP believes the costs may halve this decade, but the big oiler believes improvements fuel efficiency may have an even bigger impact.

"We forecast that the average light vehicle will become one third more fuel efficient by 2030, displacing more than nine million barrels of daily oil consumption in that year- or the equivalent of 10% of current global demand," McKay said.

BHP doesn't see the end of the internal combustion engine, which will still dominate road transport well into the 2030s

"Their efficiency gains will have a much larger impact on oil than the aggressive move towards EVs that we project," McKay said.

The Tesla Model 3 and Chevrolet Bolt - both of which will be launched next year - will be the first mass market EVs that can be driven for 320km on a single charge - the minimum many commentators say is needed if they're to go mainstream in the US, and the demagogue of Silicon Valley are hoping the next generation of EVs will be as disruptive as the roll-out of the smart phone.

BHP agrees demand for EVs will increase, by around 25% per annum between now and 2035, lifting their share of sales from approximately 0.5% today to 13% in 20 years, displacing 2.3MMbopd or just 2% of current demand.

Little wonder the likes of BHP aren't concerned by EVs as a threat to their core business, although combined the rise of EVs and greater fuel efficiency is likely to play a role in decreasing demand, which some analysts could mean the temporary downturn in oil prices could become more permanent.

There are big changes at the other end of the supply chain too. General Motors has announced a plan to switch its energy generation to 100% renewables by 2050.

"Establishing a 100% renewable energy goal helps us better serve society by reducing environmental impact," GM chairman and CEO Mary Barra said.

"This pursuit of renewable energy benefits our customers and communities through cleaner air while strengthening our business through lower and more stable energy costs."

GM made the announcement on Wednesday, revealing that it planned to generate or source all its electrical power needs for its 350 operations in 59 countries with 100% renewable energy such as wind, solar, and landfill gas, by 2050.

Shell is also getting in on the act of supporting EVs, confirming plans to place charging stations at its fuel stations across the UK.

Shell will be going into competition with companies such as Chargemaster, Ecotricity and Tesla, which have all been building out networks of charging points in the UK.

There are around 12,000 chargers in the UK now.

Shell's stance on electric cars is in stark contrast with that of ExxonMobil, which argued that the government should avoid policies that support electric cars because it says cutting carbon emissions from centralised power stations is cheaper.

Meanwhile, Australia's Locality Planning Energy rolled out Australia's first commercial electric vehicle charging station it says can charge EVs 25 times faster than standard chargers, which can provide sufficient charge to travel 50km in just 10 minutes compared to six hours using a standard charger.

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