EUROPE

Question marks remain over Paris accord

BIG oil and gas companies are still trying to work out what the comprehensive but imperfect climate change deal nearly 200 countries signed up to in Paris over the weekend means for them, with the deal obligating nearly every nation to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

After four years of talks and decades of inaction, representatives from almost 200 countries created history in Paris over the weekend with the COP 21 agreement, which outlines a series of measures to restrict global warming to 1.5C over pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

But the final agreement, which will make more than $1 dollars in green investment available over the next decade, needs 55 nations accounting for at least 55% of emissions to sign up to the green energy accord before April 2017.

The world will aim for climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions to peak "as soon as possible", probably in second half of this century.

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions will bet set in 2018 and will be reviewed again in 2023 and then once every five years to reflect highest possible ambition.

Laggards will be named and shamed.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance's Australian boss Kobad Bhavnagri said the first was "imperfect", but will require Australia to significantly strengthen its 2030 emissions reduction commitments.

"It also naturally implies that global usage of coal will need to be curbed if the stated ambitions are to be met, which will reduce demand for Australia's exports. However the agreement falls well short of actually requiring global fossil fuel usage to be curbed via any concrete measures," Bhavnagri said.

"Australia's current pledge of 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030 is - like most countries - not consistent with the agreed goal of limiting global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels. It will thus likely need to be deepened towards the 45-65% range recommended by the Climate Change Authority as Australia's fair contribution in reaching this temperature goal.

"Deeper cuts in emissions imply that Australia will also need to hasten the deployment of renewable energy, make more concrete steps to reduce usage of fossil-fuels, especially coal, and develop more robust, scalable and non-government funded carbon policy if the emissions reductions are to be achieved domestically.

"This could involve a 2030 Renewable Energy Target, specific policy aimed at retiring coal-fired generators and increased regulations on, or pricing of, carbon emissions."

Australia's biggest polluter, AGL Energy, has already said it intends to phase out its coal-fired generation.

Lobby groups in the oil and gas sector are still framing their responses to COP21, which green groups are calling the beginning of the end for the fossil fuel sector, but Queensland Resource Council argues that coal and gas will both play a role in reducing global warming.

QRC CEO Michael Roche yesterday welcomed the Paris accord, and pushed Queensland coal as the perfect fuel for the new generation of High-Efficiency Low-Emission (HELE) coal-fired power generation technologies, carbon capture and storage, plus renewables and nuclear.

"The Paris talks and accord have revealed nothing that alters our view that there will be very strong demand from India and South East Asia for our high-energy coal," he said.

"In fact, governments from those regions made it very clear in Paris that coal will play a critical role in their future power supply.

"The accord also does not alter the expected 160% increase in demand for gas in Asia out to 2040."

A cooler response came from the Climate Institute.

CEO John Connor said Australia was conflicted, agreeing to a move to a zero carbon global economy over time, but its targets own were inadequate and more suited to a 3-4C increase.

It will leave the nation as the highest per capita polluter in the G20 alongside just Saudi Arabia, one of the most obstructive forces in the Paris negotiations.

"The process was always going to be ugly and the agreement is not perfect. But this agreement, and its process of continually ratcheting up action, makes the objective unmistakeably clear. Nations are heading, within a handful of decades, to net zero emissions - an end to adding heat-trapping carbon pollution to our atmosphere," Connor said.

He called on Australia to urgently lift its game on pollution targets, matching aspirations with outcomes, and targeting net zero emissions before 2050, and said there should be a domestic plan for the nation to phase out existing coal fired power plants which will block modernisation and innovation of the electricity system for decades.

Australia's environment minister Greg Hunt expects a doubling on renewable and a reduction in terms of the overall coal fire capacity, but could not confirm a decrease in coal exports.

He said no changes to Australia's export laws are planned.

There are no plans at this stage for a new Australian carbon tax, despite the idea being adopted in other regions, such as Alaska, and having the support of the world's biggest oilers.

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