An ACIL Tasman study commissioned by the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association showed that imposing a moratorium on NSW's CSG industry would result in a $A73 billion fall in real income over the period to 2035, while receipts from CSG royalties and payroll tax would fall by $4.7 billion over the same period.
It would also result in a $1.48 per gigajoule, or 21%, increase in average wholesale gas prices over 2025-35; an increase in carbon dioxide emissions from power generation by 6 million tonnes per year by 2030; an increase in wholesale electricity prices by 8.35% in the period 2020-30; and result in a fall in employment by an average of 5362 annual fulltime positions.
On the other hand, should CSG production in the state continue to expand without an LNG project, NSW could produce about 133 petajoules of CSG by 2020, making it 71% self sufficient in gas supply with this increasing to 222PJ by 2030, or 77% self sufficiency.
Wholesale electricity prices are also expected to experience a smaller increase compared to that if a moratorium on CSG is passed.
These prices would be marginally lower than in the base case CSG production scenario if strong growth in NSW's CSG industry occurred to meet both domestic and export LNG capacity of up to 12 million tonnes per annum.
"Allowing the NSW gas industry to reach its full potential will reduce growth in greenhouse gas emissions, curtail energy price hikes, and revitalise rural and regional economies," APPEA eastern Australia chief operating officer Rick Wilkinson said.
"This report shows CSG can be an economic and environmental game changer for NSW. With a strong CSG industry, NSW can meet growing energy demand while maintaining economic growth and curbing greenhouse gas emissions.
"NSW has significant natural gas potential resources, yet gas is used to generate less than 5% of the state's electricity. And of the gas used in NSW, about 95% is imported from other states."
Wilkinson noted Queensland's CSG industry has already created more than 9000 jobs, meets a third of its gas demand and is set to contribute $850 million in state government taxes.
"These projects will also pay billions of dollars in federal income tax - the Gladstone LNG project alone will pay an estimated $40 billion."
