The Biofuels for Transportation report was sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, and co-released by German Agencies for Technical Cooperation and Renewable Resources and the WorldWatch Institute.
The report’s authors claim next-generation biofuel conversion technologies, including ethanol production using enzymes and synthetic diesel production via gasification/Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, will be able to compete economically with traditional fuels in the medium term.
According to the report, biofuels could provide 37% of US transport fuel within the next 25 years, and up to 75% if automobile fuel economy doubles. Biofuels could replace 20-30% of the oil used in European Union countries during the same period.
The report said biofuels production in 2005 accounted for 1% of the global transport fuel market, according to information from existing country studies on biofuels use in Brazil, China, Germany, India, and Tanzania.
The 2005 biofuels production figure of more than 670,000 barrels per day represents twice the production levels recorded in 2001, and is ready for even stronger growth, according to the German report.
But the report stresses that the development and implementation of second-generation biofuels refining techniques are needed to minimise the ecological and agricultural risks associated with large-scale ‘energy crop’ farming.
“It is essential that government incentives be used to minimise competition between food and fuel crops and to discourage expansion onto ecologically valuable lands,” said Worldwatch Biofuels Project manager Suzanne Hunt.
Brazil is the world’s biofuels leader, with half of its sugar cane crop providing more than 40% of its non-diesel transport fuel.
In the US, where 15% of the corn crop provides about 2% of non-diesel transport fuel, ethanol production is growing even more rapidly.
The report claims that both countries may have already reached the point where ethanol is cheaper to produce than regular transport fuel.
International trade of biofuels could have a significant impact on transport’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions throughout the world, said the report.
But international environmental sustainability guidelines and certification systems must be used to protect ecological resources and maintain public trust in the merits of biofuels.
Biofuels certification systems need to incorporate standards to ensure soil productivity, water quality and other ecosystem services are maintained, the report said.
The rapid development of cellulosic biomass production techniques – using agricultural, municipal and forestry wastes – could reduce environmental risks while increasing the security of biofuels feedstock, further reducing the cost of biofuels production.
The use of high-energy crops capable of growing in marginal land, such switchgrass in the US or the mallee tree in Australia, could also reduce future biofuels production costs.
