AUSTRALIA

Sell gas cheap and invest downstream: India CG

INDIA may well be the next land of opportunity for Australian energy exporters, but the nation is expecting low prices and downstream investment, which is bad news for ExxonMobil's supply contract from Gorgon.

Sell gas cheap and invest downstream: India CG

The Consul General of India in Perth, Amit Kumar Mishra, outlined his country's path to energy security at a panel session on Australian energy exports at the Energy in Western Australia conference in Perth last week.

Mishra compared the major transformation underway in India today with China 15 years ago.

Energy consumption in India had almost doubled in the last decade, but there are still 250 million people with no access to electricity.

"Reaching the major target of providing 24/7 electricity to each and every household: that remains the key factor governing investment policy," he said.

Mishra reviewed opportunities for three Australian export commodities - LNG, coal and uranium - and the increasing penetration of renewable energy in India.

India's current power generation capacity of 300 gigawatts comes from coal-fired (62%), gas fired (8%), renewable (28%) and nuclear (2%) capacity, he said.

Gas capacity lying idle

The role of gas in Indian power is less than the generation capacity suggests. Only a third of the 24GW of installed gas-fired power generation is operational.

"Millions of dollars [are] tied up in investments lying idle because we can't find affordable gas which will produce electricity which can compete against other options," Mishra said.

This excess capacity has led to India becoming the second-largest buyer in the LNG spot market, driven by the lower price of LNG.

India is looking for the price of its contracted LNG to go down like spot LNG has.

In December 2015 India's Petronet and Qatar's RasGas announced the renegotiation of their long-term LNG contract signed in 2009.

Indian energy minister Dharmendra Pradhan said in May that the revised LNG price formula came to less than $5/MMBtu.

This has led to speculation that India also wants ExxonMobil's contract with Petronet for Gorgon LNG to be renegotiated.

Reports surfaced in June that Petronet had started negotiations with ExxonMobil to rework pricing for a one million tonne per annum procurement agreement.

Mishra confirmed that India wants changes, saying: "If we have to off-take some gas to go from WA to India it has to negotiated, it can't be at the price of $12. It has to land in India at somewhere around $5/MMBtu."

He said India had offered stakes in idle power plants to LNG producers and they are working various business models with major players in Perth.

"Hopefully something will materialise, and … we will see a substantial amount of export of LNG from WA," he said.

Mishra did not elaborate on who those major players were.

Woodside Petroleum had looked at LNG regasification projects in India in the past. In April its CEO Peter Coleman said the Perth oiler was open to co-investment with infrastructure partners.

Renewables soaring

Half of renewable energy's 28% share of power generation capacity comes from hydroelectricity. Wind and solar contribute equal shares of the remainder.

In 2014 the government decided to increase solar energy, targeting 100GW by 2024. Costs have come down, and there has been substantial foreign investment.

"What seemed impossible when the target of 100GW was announced now seems very much in reach," Mishra said.

He also sees opportunities for cooperating on increasing energy efficiency and lithium.

However, while the greenest energy sources are growing rapidly in India, so are the dirtiest.

Cheap coal still the mainstay

"Coal will continue to be the mainstay of our power generation, as India has large coal reserves and there is a lot of installed capacity," he said.

Mishra said India is the second largest consumer of coal, and consumption is increasing.

Wood Mackenzie vice president and regional head of Asia Craig McMahon also told the conference that Australian coal was some of the cleanest coal on the market, with high calorific value, low sulphur and low ash content.

Mishra acknowledged that Australian coal was cleaner than India's reserves. Bur similarly to LNG, the message was that only low prices would drive volumes.

"If cleaner coal from Australia comes at an affordable rate that can compete against our existing production capacity it will … help us meet the emission targets," he said.

Mishra said he expected coal to continue as the mainstay of Indian power generation until the nation achieved reliable electricity to every household.

Nuclear growing

Five years ago India had an ambitious target of nuclear growing to 25% of the country's energy mix.

The government has moderated the goal due to the long time and the massive investment required for nuclear development.

Mishra said the aim is now 6% of the energy mix by 2030, up from 2%.

India would look to Australia for uranium supplies, after recently concluding a nuclear agreement between the two countries.

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