"Any proposed LNG project that has not already taken FID will struggle to do so in the coming years given the continued downward pressure on pricing as a result of low oil prices," the firm said in its latest Energy Insights report.

Even this prediction on the looming long-range supply-demand gap, however, is subject to greater uncertainty in the long-term, with a number of critical drivers set to determine market direction to 2030, the report said.

In one sense, nothing will change, with demand to be governed in large part by Asia's increasing appetite for gas.

McKinsey says global natural gas demand is likely to grow by 1.9% to about 4700 billion cubic metres by 2030, with Africa, North America and the Middle East to also provide other "pockets" of demand growth, with a total of 980Bcm between them.

Conversely, McKinsey believes Europe and Russia will stay stagnant, adding a mere 40Bcm of additional demand over the same period.

McKinsey says China, India, Pakistan and ASEAN countries look set to account for more than 90% of total new volume demand over the next 15 years.

In last week's Gas Shipping Report for October 2015, Lloyd's Register says the amount of LNG will double by 2025 from today's level of about 250 million tonnes per annum.

Meanwhile, the percentage of LNG's share of the overall, and growing, gas market is likely to double as well from 8% to 16%.

"So, not only will there be more gas shipping but it will be more significant as an overall factor in meeting global gas demand," LR said.

McKinsey said the big growth in exporting capacity would be in Australasia and North America.

"Middle East exports are likely to remain stable but with expansion in exports from Australia and the development of North American exports, it will be these two areas that underpin the growth in seaborne LNG trades," McKinsey said.

"With a decline in the capacity of older LNG terminals, around 240 billion cubic metres of new supply capacity will be required by 2030 - above and beyond that already satisfied by approved FIDs.

"FIDs will be fundamental to securing long-term supply - projects already under construction look likely to fulfil, and exceed, demand over the next few years, but the market looks set to tighten again by 2022 if further FIDs go unapproved."

"Much of their likelihood to progress hinges on the price of oil and the ability to deflate expenditure for large capital projects."

Complicating issues, McKinsey says, is that lower oil prices have led to a slower than expected switch to LNG.

"If they remain low, they will have a significant impact on supply and demand dynamics. Not only will they reduce the cash flows of oil and gas companies, limiting their ability to reinvest, but the viability of future FIDs will be at risk," McKinsey said.

"At a sustained level of $US75/bbl, only 10% of proposed projects would remain profitable, with 60% turning no profit at all.

"At the even lower current oil price of $US40-50/bbl it is very unlikely that new FIDs are taken at all without major cost deflation achievements."

This means the global gas market will tighten once more and a divergence in regional prices will return, the firm said.

Coleman said in the conference call for Woodside's first half results in August that the goal for Browse was just to break even at the current expectations of oil pricing, which aren't great.

Then last month he said costs needed to come down before the Chevron Corporation-operated Kitimat LNG - in which his company purchased a half-share along with its associated fields from Apache - would float.

Kitimat will be fed by shale gas, which adds further intrigue to McKinsey's analysis which said the gas industry would need to expand supply from regions with conventional gas and access additional unconventional supplies to plug the supply gap that will form by 2030.

The firm says shale looks set to deliver 60% growth between 2015 and 2030, which represents a 750Bcm volume increase, in comparison with 500Bcm for conventional supplies.

"With the surge in supply from US shale producers, the world is likely to look west to fulfil much of this demand," the report said.

"With LNG exports opening from 2016, the global trade map will be redrawn, with a series of new pipeline and export routes sustaining extensive volumes, particularly around China and North Asia."

Wildcard

Amid all this, McKinsey says the Middle East could prove to be the wildcard of the LNG market, because although it currently holds 43% of total global gas reserves, political embargoes have meant that it has only accounted for around 16% of total trade flows.

"The warming of relations between Iran and the West could be a potential game changer if the country enters the gas market at full force," McKinsey said.

And while the idea of gas prices being de-linked from oil prices is still considered a fanciful idea, particularly among Aussie oilers, McKinsey says that if gas prices do remain linked to oil, particularly in Asia, "we could see a tightening - and subsequent rebalancing - of the global gas market, alongside potential erosion of demand in Asia".

The firm expects demand in South Korea, the recipient of Santos' first Gladstone LNG cargo that set sail late last month, to show "modest" growth at 1.2% a year as a result of government policy stimulating a switch from coal, and continued support for both gas and nuclear.