AUSTRALIA

Woodside M&A expectations build

UBS is expecting Woodside to pursue more mergers and acquisitions activity to lift production des...

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"We have been impressed with the productivity enhancements Woodside has been able to extract from the business to date ($A560 million in 2014 alone) and today's presentation confirmed our view that this will continue over the coming 18 months," the broker said of Woodside's annual investor day revelations last week.

"Wheatstone LNG will provide a boost to an otherwise declining production profile, but we expect more M&A to lift production, particularly given the final investment decision timing of Browse has pushed out."

Other analysts are also expecting Woodside to pursue more acquisition activity. IG market strategist Evan Lucas recently told Energy News that Woodside was going to develop Browse at a slower rate to see if there are better M&A opportunities as the current disorder of the oil market continued.

UBS further said the Browse floating LNG project would be difficult to sanction in the current environment and has given it a zero value rating in its 12-month target price for Woodside of $37.70 a share each (made when they were $34.33).

The broker commented that the Kitimat LNG project, which Woodside acquired a 50% stake of through its Apache deal earlier this year which also netted a 13% stake in Wheatstone, had a high annual capital expenditure of around $US200 million given that Kitimat was "essentially on hold".

There were kinder words on the exploration front with Woodside planning to drill gas wells Malaguti (Australia), Honnge (South Korea) and Suang (Myanmar) in the September quarter along with the Cheetah-1 oil hunting well in Cameroon.

"While no prospect sizes were quantified, each of these wells offers material portfolio upside," UBS said.

"The exploration portfolio has been rebalanced and is now more oil focused in regions other than Asia-Pacific where gas is the primary target given the LNG market is on its doorstep."

As part of other key takeaways UBS said the North West Shelf LNG operation should be at full capacity until around 2025 with the help of development projects while there were opportunities to capture third party gas.

The broker noted that Woodside can still marginally lift LNG output from the existing NWS and Pluto plants.

"Woodside stated that it has the potential to increase LNG capacity at Pluto and NWS by 1 to 2%, which sounds disappointing, however remember the project is already producing at around 5% ahead of nameplate capacity," it said.

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