UBS said the news, which also included BP's plans to refurbish existing service stations, was consistent with BP comments on winning back market share which were made in November 2013.
The broker is not yet sure if the latest news "scuppers Caltex's recently stated desire to buy BP's Australian operations" or means that a BP move to exit Australia will take longer than Caltex envisioned.
"The absence of other material acquisition opportunities within Australia, this latest news increases the chances of Caltex undertaking capital returns in the next nine months in our view," UBS said in a client note earlier this week.
"The logical options to unlock franking credit value over time would be via a special dividend or an off-market buyback. Smaller acquisitions (up to around $A250 million in size) and some form of capital return could be funded from its own balance sheet, without having to raise additional equity."
UBS has maintained a sell rating on Australia-listed Caltex despite having 5% per annum growth expectations for Caltex's marketing and distribution business over the next few years and a program to achieve $80-100 million of cost savings in 2016.
"However with the stock up 63% in the last 12 months and trading at 18.2x PE [Price-Earnings ratio], the stock looks fully priced," UBS said.
Chevron exited its 50% stake of Caltex through $4.62 billion block trade, Australia's biggest, in late March with an associated $1.6 billion profit to be recorded in the future June quarter results.
