Coming a day after the Climate Change Authority's formal recommendations on Australia's domestic emissions reductions targets, Unburnable carbon: why we need to leave fossil fuels in the ground identifies Australia as one of three international climate hotspots with fossil fuel resources, which if developed, will almost certainly lock the world into a future of climate change.
 


"Australia is potentially a huge contributor to climate change through its vast fossil fuel reserves", Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said.

"People often think Australia is a small contributor to climate change, but they don't realise that pollution from our massive coal reserves, if burned, are enough alone to change the world's climate. Australia is a climate hotspot."

Key findings include:

• A 2C rise in temperature could trigger major changes in the Earth system, like the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, which would eventually raise sea level by about 7m, inundating major cities worldwide. Humanity has driven a rise in global temperature of 0.85C;
• To have just a 50:50 chance of preventing a 2C rise in global temperature: 88% of global coal reserves, 65% of oil reserves and 52% of gas reserves are unburnable and must be left under the ground. To improve the odds, the carbon budget must be more stringent;
• Australia is a potentially huge contributor to climate change with vast coal reserves. If all of Australia's coal resources were burnt, it would take us two-thirds of the way to a 2C rise in global temperature (based on a 75% chance to meet the two degrees Celsius warming limit);
• More than 90% of Australian coal reserves are unburnable;
• Huge new fossil fuel developments, like the Galilee Basin in Australia, the tar sands in Canada and new resources in the Arctic, are incompatible with effective action on climate change;
• Replacing our ageing coal stations with modern, clean renewables could help Australia tackle climate change with little or no economic cost, or, more likely, with economic benefits; and
• New investment in fossil fuels needs to be reduced to zero as soon as possible in order to keep global temperature rise below the 2C threshold.

  Former BP Australasia president and Climate Council councillor Gerry Hueston said any new coal developments could become stranded assets in a world rapidly cutting carbon emissions.

  "Australia is one of few countries with a vested interest in continued coal expansion but we'll be left out in the cold by countries with nothing to gain and everything to lose from new fossil fuel development," he said.
 


  "The bottom line is, Australian coal has to stay in the ground if we are to prevent large scale changes to the climate."


  Climate councillor Professor Will Steffen said many of the big, forward thinking economies were already transitioning away from fossil fuels with the three major party leaders in the UK signing a joint pledge to end the use of unabated coal for power generation.
 


  "New coal development is completely out of step with global efforts to tackle climate change and to build momentum in renewable energy development," Steffen said.
 


  "If we want to do our fair share to tackle climate change, not only can we not develop any new coal mines but we also have to have a planned phase-out of our existing fossil fuel extraction and usage.


  "Energy policies that support substantial fossil fuel use, such as government investment in new coal infrastructure, are simply inconsistent with tackling climate change."