ASIA

China's limits to growth

THE gloss has come off the Chinese dragon, with LNG imports in decline – a worrying sign for Aust...

China's limits to growth

Chinese LNG imports are down 3.5% this year, compared with a 10% rise in 2014.

Total gas consumption grew about 2% in the first half of the year, a turnabout from the double-digit growth in recent years.

Chinese demand has slowed, in part because government-regulated prices have priced gas out of the market for some industrial customers compared to cheaper coal, while in other areas Chinese manufacturers are reducing their energy needs in response to lower global demand for products.

It now looks like companies banking on the growth in Chinese energy demand called it wrong, or at least too early, and the Chinese LNG bubble has popped.

China isn't the only game in town. Korea and Japan are still major customers, and there are smaller and emerging customers, from Singapore to Thailand, Vietnam and Laos, but it is symptomatic of a sick global economy.

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie slashed its China gas-demand forecast by about 15% to 360 billion cubic meters by 2020.

It means the world is facing an LNG over-supply, potentially has much as 23 million tonnes per annum in 2018. That's more than China imported last year.

Citi Research says if all the projects being constructed, planned and proposed today came to fruition, the market would face around one-third more capacity than it needs by 2025.

Northeast Asia spot LNG prices have fallen to less than $US8 per million British thermal units, a halving of the peak above $US14/MMBtu last year.

Australia is already committed to the LNG revolution, and can't step back, so any number of proposals in Canada appear to have stalled, project cancellations have started in the US and upstarts like the Mozambique LNG already face steep challenges in just getting approved by their resource owners and developing greenfield capacity in east Africa, a region with no previous LNG experience.

India's emerging economy, one of the big hopes for resource owners such as Woodside Petroleum, could source its own gas by throwing money to develop Mozambique's massive resources.

There are reports today that India's third biggest oil refiner, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, is negotiating with its partners in the Mozambique gas field, operated by Anadarko Petroleum, to bring natural gas to India for its upcoming 5MMtpa LNG terminal in Gujarat state.

HPCL is looking at a strong mix of long-term and spot contracts for sourcing LNG for its terminal, unlike the current trend where most buyers are locked in long-term contracts.

It shares an interest in Rovuma Area 1 with the other state-owned oilers Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum.

HPCL is seeking to commission its import terminal by 2019, several years before Mozambique is targeting production, so there is a short-term market for an aggregator such as Shell, but in the longer-term India sees gas from Mozambique as its cheapest option.

Mozambique LNG has reportedly pre-sold 80% of its 12MMtpa capacity, but so far deals with India have not been finalised, with India looking for gas more in line with the current spot price, not the more expensive long-term contracts of 12MMtpa being paid by PetroNet and GAIL.

Companies like Woodside are banking on a spike in demand from the early 2020s, but everyone is chasing that same increase of market share.

China is also importing more gas via Central Asia pipelines and has plans for big Russian pipelines to source ultra-cheap gas.

It means projects like Arrow LNG might be stranded for several years, even if Shell and Petrochina can get their gas to Gladstone.

And it appears there is plenty of gas to take up any slack in the market already.

Sinopec, which is contracted to take 7.6MMtpa from the Australia Pacific LNG project apparently does not need most of that gas, and could sell it on the spot market at a loss for the next few years.

It means that even if resource developers are able to achieve the productivity gains and salary reductions they are seeking, the second wave of Australian LNG projects - Gorgon Trains 5 and 5, Browse, Scarborough and Fisherman's Landing - are likely to stall.

Cheaper options, such as PNG LNG Train 3 or Papua LNG, could also steal what little growth there is from out under Australia. Little wonder Woodside wants in on that action.

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