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Oil and gas plays that promise to alter the energy game

THE YEAR gone may have been largely dominated by rising geo-political tensions, volatility in crude oil prices and shifting regulatory regimes on oil and gas investments. However, equally crucial were key technological changes, altering risk perceptions that boosted appetite for exploration and major discoveries that could change the broader energy supply landscape. By <b>Gomati Jagadeesan</b>

Oil and gas plays that promise to alter the energy game

In the energy space, much of the year was dominated by sanctions on Iran and the resultant affect on crude oil supplies across the globe. While Saudi Arabia filled the supply vacuum for a while, towards the end of the year the swing OPEC producer bowed to the growing macroeconomic concerns, and cut production to 10-month lows, sustaining high crude oil prices.

This was the year China made its largest overseas direct investment, with CNOOC making a $15.1 billion tilt at Canada's Nexen Energy. While it was approved, some argued the deal would change the Canadian foreign investment regime.

That said, it was a remarkable year for the oil and gas sector as technological advances in unconventional sources, especially in shale space in North America, promised to turn the tide there.

The most promising of the oil plays in the US are the Bakken shale in North Dakota and Eagle Ford in Texas. The Bakken shale play has put the state in the number two spot as oil producer ahead of Alaska.

It is largely due to the tapping of the Bakken play that the US increased its oil output last year to a 15-year high. The US Geological Survey estimates the Bakken could produce about 4.3 billion barrels of oil.

There is a larger upside to Bakken that is yet to be tapped, with much of the drilling focused on Middle Bakken and the upper Three Forks Zones. The Upper Bakken and the entire Three Forks Zone are yet to be drilled.

Close on Bakken's heels is the Eagle Ford shale play in Texas. Many say it is the next Bakken - only bigger - and could soon overtake its West Texas counterpart, the Permian shale basin. It is one of the most active areas in the US with oil production, last year alone, bumping up to 300,000 barrels per day.

Eagle Ford is also a major natural gas play and drilling there has been spearheaded by EOG Resources. It has about 1.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves and is producing about 110,000boe per day.

While exploration in the North American shale plays holds tremendous promise, given the high oil price environment, it is more recent discoveries closer home that could swing the supply side.

The Mediterranean came into limelight with the Levant Basin holding an estimated 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas and 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

While a significant portion of this gas is in the troubled waters off Syria, Lebanon and Greek-occupied Northern Cyprus, 25-33 billion cubic feet of gas is in the Israeli waters.

The first fresh natural gas field in the region is expected to start production soon, with two more fields likely to come onstream in the next six years.

What has specifically garnered attention of the oilies, including Australia's Woodside, is the discovery of Leviathan and Tamar fields in northern Israel, which together hold an estimated 25 trillion cubic feet of gas.

There are also estimates that Israel potentially has 1.9 billion barrels of oil reserves yet to be explored.

Many say recovering those resources may be expensive because the resources are far offshore and in deep waters.

Nevertheless, it is this potential that has lured Woodside into making a $1.25 billion investment in the field for a 30% stake.

Perhaps holding the biggest wildcard to the supply dynamics are discoveries in the east African basins.

The Rovuma Basin in Mozambique hogged the headlines for all the right reasons, where Cove Energy's stake in a field was at the centre of a spirited bidding war between Royal Dutch Shell and Thailand's PTTEP, which finally snapped up the deal.

The basin is estimated to hold 130 trillion cubic feet of gas, while nearby Tanzania added to the east African charm with some 33 trillion cubic feet of gas discoveries recently.

The crown jewels undoubtedly belong to Tullow Oil and its Canadian partner Africa Oil Corp, which last year hit pay dirt with 100m of oil in the Ngamia-1 well in Turkana County in Kenya. That it was a maiden venture in the first ever well added to the prospectivity.

The feat was repeated late November when the pair hit another 30m of oil in the nearby Twiga-1 well. Others such as Apache Corp have also made successful exploratory drilling.

The East African Rift is estimated to hold over 70 billion barrels of crude oil, while Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique together are said to have 250 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The potential for oil discoveries is high, too, with the Kenyan discovery being made in just one of the seven massive basins offshore.

While the year 2012 was the year of prospectivity for these plays, 2013 could be a game-changer, with commerciality being tested here.

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