Industry commentators say the parties involved in the Maui redetermination row are about to issue the proposed scope of work to the various candidates. However, it is likely to be several more weeks before all bids from all interested parties are submitted, considering they will have to identify the personnel available to do the project, when such a project could be done, and the price involved.

Major Maui gas user Natural Gas Corporation announced in mid-June that an independent firm would be appointed to decide the level of remaining Maui gas reserves. As a result, Methanex New Zealand withdrew all its High Court proceedings against the field owner, Maui Development Limited and the Crown.

The parties to the Maui gas contracts - the New Zealand government, MDL, Methanex, NGC and Contact Energy - also agreed that, in addition to deciding the level of remaining gas reserves, the independent expert will also consider any issues relating to the inadequacy of information provided by MDL, as claimed by Methanex.

Some of the international firms, which had earlier regarded as frontrunners to be appointed, now appear to have only a slim chance of winning the work.

Commentators say Gaffney Cline is out of the running since both NGC and Methanex have used them in the past and they therefore are seen as having a potential conflict of interest.

Texas-headquartered Forrest Garb and Associates may not be approached as the Treasury department has engaged them to do work for the Crown in the past. Also firm founder Forrest Garb may well be retired by now.

However, Degolyer and MacNaughton could still be considered to be in the running.

The move to appoint an independent firm surprised no-one in the New Zealand energy industry, given the likelihood of escalating manoeuvring by some parties without such an appointment being made. The Maui contract provides for such an independent view where the parties cannot agree on the remaining volume of gas reserves.

The appointment of the adjudicator should bring finality to an issue which could have dragged on for perhaps two years and only been settled by the London-based law lords, the Privy Council.

It is still possible for the parties to agree on the remaining reserves before a decision is made by the independent expert, which is expected within four months of their appointment.

The Maui redetermination row is the most important issue to face the New Zealand energy industry in years. MDL shocked the New Zealand energy industry last November when it announced that Maui could be depleted by mid-2007 instead of the contracted 2009. It later asked for a formal redetermination - an effective re-allocation of remaining reserves between the major users.

NGC and Contact Energy can survive losing physical gas and rights to pre-paid gas, NGC less so than Contact. However, losing physical gas will put Methanex NZ out of business.