The 169th meeting of OPEC members ended without any agreement on an output ceiling, but that was expected anyway, with the cartel's leadership acknowledging that with prices hovering around $US50/barrel the urgency to reach a deal wasn't particularly strong.

The new secretary general is Nigerian Mohammed Barkindo, from the country where, only a few hours ago the Niger Delta Avengers tweeted that they'd blown up the Ogboinbiri to Tebidaba and Clough Creek to Tebidaba crude oil pipelines in Bayelsa state in the country's south.

RBC Capital Markets said this morning there was "little public finger pointing" at Iran for refusing to agree to a cap on output unless individual country quotas were reintroduced.

"Both the OPEC president, Mohammed Saleh Abdulla Al Sada, and the (former) secretary seneral, Abdalla Salem el-Badri, stated that Iran had a sovereign right to try to return to pre-sanctions production levels," RBC said in a client note.

"It is worth noting that Iran's refusal to agree to the reintroduction of a collective ceiling likely killed the proposal, as United Arab Emirates' energy minister indicated in the morning that all members would have to agree to such an output cap."

Beyond the better price environment, RBC said the Saudis' "charm offensive" may have also contributed to the improved atmosphere at the meeting.

This week, the newly appointed Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih went to considerable lengths to try to mend fences with the rest of the cartel and to repair some of the damage done by his country's holdout at the Doha meeting earlier this year.

"Beyond floating the idea of reintroducing a collective output ceiling, Khalid al-Falih and other Gulf Cooperation council energy ministers stressed the importance of therole played by 56-year-old institution in stabilizing prices - the last 18 months notwithstanding," RBC said.

"Moreover, there was no talk from the gulf energy ministers about being impervious to low oil prices; instead, they expressed satisfaction with the recent upswing and indicated that they needed prices to rise further in order to facilitate sufficient investment in the energy sector

Even the obviously distressed OPEC members seemed less visibly so this time around.

Venezuela's energy minister Eulogio Del Pino - whose country has the world's largest oil reserves and provides 10% of US imports yet is in a crisis amid low oil prices - claimed the meeting was "excellent" on his way out of the building.

This was the man who, in December, made an impassioned plea for OPEC action on oil prices, warning that they could drop to $20 if there was no agreement.

This time he floated his proposal for individual country output bands in the morning and expressed confidence that even if the idea was not adopted at the meeting, a committee would be created to consider the idea and it could be implemented in December.

Yet in the end, as with much OPEC does, it's all smoke and mirrors.

"If anything, his calm demeanour [at the meeting] stands in stark contrast to the chaos engulfing his country," RBC said.

In the final analysis, OPEC is going nowhere fast, as the market has long baked in a mostly benign OPEC meeting - a word which is also increasingly used for the cartel itself - a view which largely reinforces the growing consensus that individual OPEC countries will keep acting in their own best interests.

The wildcard

The biggest wildcard remains Tehran.

RBC said the return of Iranian barrels post-the lifting of nuclear related sanctions from the West remains a "key headwind" for prices over coming months.

Output has increased by some 400,000bopd thus far this year, yet growth in both production and exports have recently shown signs of slowing from the peaks reached in April.

Wood Mackenzie said just before the OPEC meeting that Iran's longer-term growth prospects relied on attracting capital investment, using the new fiscal vehicle called the Iran Petroleum Contract, whereby there are 29 oil projects out of 49 upstream oil and gas development projects offered to local and foreign investors.

The firm estimates that the 29 oil projects hold 11 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil, and the implementation and attractiveness of the IPC will be "critical" to meet many of these long-term objectives.

However, the IPC is proving controversial and is still to be approved. The new terms face internal criticism from conservative MPs and from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are against too much openness; and the Supreme Leader's final stance is critical.

"A lack of investment on greenfield projects and limited EOR skills have resulted in low recovery rates and unmet targets," Wood Mackenzie said.

"Other producers in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and IOC-backed Iraqi fields have significantly higher recovery rates, so Iran is currently underperforming within the region. Reserves growth represents a huge opportunity, but investment and EOR skills from IPC projects are critical."

Yet despite the lack of change in policy, RBC doesn't see Saudi Arabia ramping up production materially over the near-term.

While the Shaybah field expansion is nearing completion, the additional output is expected to stem declines rather than incrementally increase production levels, RBC said.

"Additionally, the ramp up of the Wasit facility means that natural gas will cannibalise the amount of crude required for domestic burn this summer.

"Simply put, we see little reason for the Saudis to significantly increase production over the coming months to meet domestic or external demand.

"The cartel meets again in November, [all things being equal], the market is unlikely to price in a change in policy given that the market continues to trend into towards a balance."